How does Patrick Mahomes perform as an underdog?
By KC Proctor
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are +2.5 underdogs for this week’s game against the Bills. History shows us that may be good news for Kansas City.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are loaded up for round five of the dogfight that has been the Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen era thus far. The teams are knotted up in first place atop the AFC with 4-1 records, and Sunday afternoon is sure to present a playoff atmosphere.
Beyond what the game will look like on a microscopic level, this Week 6 bout will carry with it significant playoff implications. There is a long season ahead, but Sunday’s result will definitely play a part in seeding come January. Fortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, there is ample and hyper-specific evidence to support belief in a Chiefs victory this week.
The Chiefs are 3-1 against the Bills since 2020, and in most metrics, are just as, if not more, efficient than Buffalo this season. For that, Las Vegas oddsmakers setting the opening line for this game with the Chiefs as +2.5 point underdogs came as a bit of a surprise. Upon some further investigation, however, that line may just play into the Chiefs favor. We all know that Patrick Mahomes is keen on holding a grudge every now and again, so it’s reasonable to assume he knows the Chiefs have been made the dogs in this game.
Mahomes’s record as an underdog in the NFL is 6-0-1, and he is 5-2 straight up in those games. I looked into each of those games to see how the Chiefs’ quarterback performs when the odds are stacked against him. Here are the key takeaways from every time Patrick Mahomes has been overlooked by Vegas.
1. December 31, 2017 @ Denver; Chiefs +3
This was Patrick Mahomes’ NFL debut and he did not disappoint. At this point in time nobody knew what Mahomes Magic was, and there was plenty of reason to favor the Broncos in a home game. It didn’t take much time at all, though, for the world to see just how special the Chiefs’ rookie was.
The Broncos were a 5-win team in 2017, and the Chiefs had already claimed their second straight AFC West title by the time that Mahomes was announced as the starter. Andy Reid rolled out the second team for this game, but Patrick Mahomes appeared to pick up right where he left off at Texas Tech. His arm talent was on display, and his famed off-platform ability shined through against a tough Broncos front.
Mahomes’ favorite target on the day was Albert Wilson, who finished the game with 10 receptions for 147 yards. Three of those catches and 40 of Wilson’s total yards came on the final drive of the game. Pat led the Chiefs 67 yards down the field on 11 plays and Kansas City won the game 27-24. Mahomes put his first professional win on the board, and became 1-0 as an underdog.