Mecole Hardman’s contract year isn’t going well (so far)

Mecole Hardman is in the final year of his contract with the KC Chiefs and his season isn’t going well. What are his stats compared to previous years?

After the trade of Tyreek Hill, the Kansas City Chiefs had many questions regarding the wide receiver position. They brought in players, like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Justin Watson, but many thought Mecole Hardman would be a player to take a step forward on the Chiefs this season. Unfortunately, so far, that hasn’t been the case.

So far this season, Hardman has 8 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. That’s a 17-game pace of 34 receptions, 302 yards, and four touchdowns. He has also averaged 0.78 yards per route run, 76th among all wide receivers with at least 13 targets this season, according to Pro Football Focus ($). Not an ideal first month of the season.

For reference, here are his stats through four games in his first three seasons:

• 2021: 13 catches, 123 yards, and 1 touchdown. 1.09 yards per route run.
• 2020: 11 catches, 144 yards, and 2 touchdowns. 1.69 yards per route run.
• 2019: 8 catches, 167 yards, and 2 touchdowns. 1.40 yards per route run.
• Average: 10.7 catches, 144.7 yards, and 1.7 touchdowns. 1.37 yards per route run.

Every single major statistical category over the first four games of the season is down from his first three years. Yes, a lot of that can be attributed to a nagging heel injury suffered earlier in the season, but he’s been healthy enough to dress for every game and see playing time.

Patrick Mahomes missed Hardman running wide open to the end zone on a first-down play in the middle of the third quarter, but never looked his way, and instead threw an incomplete pass to Justin Watson. That’s 100% on Mahomes, although it could be a sign of a larger problem in that Mahomes has little trust in Hardman. That’s a concern because Hardman is in his fourth year with Mahomes and that should not be an issue this deep into his career. It could also signal that Hardman’s production may not quite return to the level it was at in previous years.

One of the main reasons that his rough start to the season is significant is because he is scheduled to be a free agent next March. Many fans assumed that Hardman would take a small step forward this season, in addition to the loss of Tyreek Hill, because he would be playing for a heavy contract in several months. The contract year has not been enough for a production boost from Hardman.

Hardman’s a talented player and did a fantastic job stepping up when Hill went down for multiple games early in 2019, but Chiefs fans may have to face the reality that this could be his last season in Kansas City.

Spotrac projects that Hardman’s next contract will be around 4-years, $33.7 million for an average of about $8.4 million a season. In my opinion, Hardman isn’t worth that contract, but Spotrac listed Marquez Valdes-Scantling as a comparable and he got 3 years, $30 million from the Chiefs. Granted, MVS’ contract is fairly flexible after the first year. The Chiefs should probably look for a more cost-controlled solution at the wide receiver position instead of handing out a second contract, which includes a considerable raise, to a player who’s never hit 700 receiving yards in a single regular season—even though he has yet to miss one such game.

Hardman is having the worst start to a season that he’s ever had in the NFL, which is a shame because he is slated to sign a new contract in the off-season. The heel injury deserves some of the blame but he’s never been a nuanced route runner and has pretty much been a speed-only receiver in the NFL.

Due to the potential rise of Skyy Moore and barring an injury, I’m not convinced that Hardman will see a huge share of the targets for the remainder of the season. He has a role on a Super Bowl-contending team but that role cannot be a major part of the offense. Hopefully his production skyrockets throughout the remaining regular season games but this is likely Hardman’s last season in Kansas City.