The Arrowhead Addict staff offer up their predictions for Sunday night’s Week 4 game between the Chiefs (2-1) and the Buccaneers (2-1).
The Kansas City Chiefs have licked their wounds and moved on from a Murphy’s Law loss at home to the Indianapolis Colts. Thankfully, the Los Angeles Chargers also got beat that day, and the Chiefs still sit atop the AFC West, tied with Denver at 2-1.
Now the Chiefs turn to Tampa Bay, although they’ve spent the better part of the week not knowing for certain where their Week 4 game would be played due to the Tuesday night landfall of Hurricane Ian. After some indecision, the decision to stay was made final on Thursday afternoon.
Like the Chiefs, the Buccaneers are also coming off of a deflating loss to a conference foe. Tampa Bay dropped their first game of the season in Week 3 to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and while the Bucs were without star wideout Mike Evans for that game (1-game suspension), he will return to the lineup for this matchup with the Chiefs.
Writer records
Literally every writer had the Chiefs pegged to move to 3-0 in our predictions last week. You did too. Jacob Milham was the closest with his Week 3 prediction, though he didn’t have the Chiefs score right, he did correctly project 20 points to the Colts. Here are the staff predictions for the Chiefs and Buccaneers in Week 4.
Patrick Allen (2-1)
I hate picking against the Chiefs, and in the Mahomes era I rarely do it. But the offense has not looked right these last two weeks, and now they are going up against a very stout Tampa defense. To make matters worse, the Bucs might be starting to get healthy on offense. The silver lining for the Chiefs is the fact that their defense is playing well. If Tampa’s offense continues to struggle, the Chiefs could win an ugly one here, but until they show me something on offense, I don’t love this matchup for them. I hope they prove me wrong.
Bucs 24, Chiefs 17
Adam Best (2-1)
The Chiefs are struggling to run the ball and won’t be able to against the Bucs, who have not allowed a running back to top 60 yards rushing all year. Fortunately, Tampa Bay’s defensive line is struggling a bit with Ndamukong Suh gone and Akiem Hicks out. That’s an opportunity for Patrick Mahomes (and his line), who’ll have a banner day and will be hellbent on beating Tom Brady this time.
Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 28
Matt Conner (2-1)
The Chiefs lost a game they should have won in Week 3. In Week 4, they will deserve the loss. I’m not sure the leadership questions or special teams miscues have been cleaned up enough to overcome a very good NFC team with Tom Brady at the helm. Neither team wants to fall to 2-2, so it should be close, but I think the Chiefs take the loss here.
Buccaneers 29, Chiefs 28
Bransen Gibson (2-1)
Last week sucked. But a week after one of their worst losses in recent memory, I think the Chiefs will bounce back with a win over Tampa Bay on Sunday night. KC’s defense showed it was legit, even with a number of key players missing. And after a disappointing performance against the Colts, I think the offense will come out with a point to prove and lead the Chiefs to victory.
Chiefs 24, Bucs 21
Lyle Graversen (2-1)
I think this game is a “pick em”. The only result that would surprise me is a big win by either team. If KC’s offense was coming in firing on all cylinders I would give them the edge, but with a beat up offensive line going against a great Tampa defense, I’ll give the edge to the Bucs in a low scoring game.
Bucs 17 Chiefs 13
Anthony Hatton (2-1)
Both the Buccaneers and Chiefs will be motivated to get things back on track after losing in Week 3. Both defenses have played well. The Chiefs offense has been better, and I think they’ve been mentally preparing for a Super Bowl 55 rematch.
Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 20
Scott Loring (2-1)
This is a very close matchup that will come down to the master (Andy Reid) vs the apprentice (Todd Bowles). Bowles served as the defensive coordinator in Philadelphia in 2012, Reid’s final year with the Eagles. That tips the scales in the Chiefs favor, but as we’ve all come to learn when Mahomes plays Brady, all bets are off. Brady gets the best of Mahomes in the end of this one.
Buccaneers 33, Chiefs 30
Ellen Mathis (2-1)
Now that we know the game is being played in Tampa and everyone will be thinking about the destruction left behind by the hurricane, I think they will be crying following Hurricane Mahomes. Mahomes & Co. looked sloppy and undisciplined last week. They will not repeat that. While Brady and the Bucs are a good team, they are not the same team that defeated the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs will find their footing in a low scoring, close game that makes them dig deep and come together to win.
Chiefs 20, Bucs, 17
Jacob Milham (2-1)
There should be more fire and less pressure on the Chiefs after last week’s embarrassing loss. Multiple players and units have something to prove against the Bucs on Sunday. While the Chiefs will not turn it around overnight, the Bucs are struggling more than the Chiefs. It will be a competitive game, if not ugly. Both pass rush units will be big wildcards, but Chris Jones could have a multi-sack game.
Chiefs 24, Bucs 17
Greg Morse (2-1)
Coming off an ugly loss, I think the Chiefs get right against the Bucs. The defense has been pressuring quarterbacks pretty well, and I think they give Tom Brady just enough of a hard time to give their offense a chance. Will the offense take advantage of that chance?
Chiefs 28, Bucs 21
KC Proctor (2-1)
The Mahomes vs Brady rivalry may very well be concluded on Sunday night. Unfortunately, I expect defense to take the spotlight away from the QB matchup in this potentially final edition. KC’s O-line faces a huge test against the Bucs, and the Chiefs’ D is on a tear through three weeks. Another prime-time under for the ‘22 regular season is loading.
Chiefs 24, Buccaneers 19
Charles Robinson (2-1)
Call me a complete Chiefs apologist. Call me a homer. But I believe the Chiefs will right the ship this week against a very tough Buccaneers defense. Kansas City needs to start this game off with a balanced, middle-out approach to their offensive gameplan. If they can find 3-4 yards at a time in the run game, and take small chunks of the field away from the Bucs with Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster, they can get a rhythm for Patrick Mahomes early, which should lead to more successful shots down the field. I don’t see them putting up 30+ against this defense, but I also don’t see Tom Brady and a decimated Buccaneers offensive line being able to hold up against a Chiefs defense that has been effective at pressuring opposing quarterbacks this season.
Chiefs 27, Bucs 19
Lucas Strozinsky (2-1)
If you had asked me two months ago, I would have picked the Bucs to win this game. If you had asked me seven days ago, I would have picked the Chiefs to win. In the end, I am picking the Bucs. Tampa Bay has the defense to limit a struggling Chiefs offense: a strong secondary to blanket an underwhelming receiving corps, and the pass rush to win just enough versus a disappointing offensive line. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers are offensively challenged as well, but they will be getting at least one big-time receiver back in Mike Evans (suspension) and may get Chris Godwin (hamstring) and/or Julio Jones (knee) back to the lineup. I also believe that Tom Brady will know how to pick apart a very young secondary, and Andy Reid and Co. won’t quite figure out an identity in time for this game. I expect the Bucs to come out on top.
Bucs 20, Chiefs 14
David Thomas (2-1)
The offensive line has not looked great. The wide receivers haven’t done much. Special teams had perhaps its worst performance ever in the Dave Toub era, and the defense is missing pieces. This feels like a recipe for a repeat of the Super Bowl. The Bucs offense hasn’t been quite as good this year as it was back then, so I don’t think they score as many points, but this feels like another game where the Chiefs will continue to have questions about their offensive line and receivers.
Bucs 20, Chiefs 17
Grant Tuttle (2-1)
The Chiefs are stumbling out of the gates again this season. With that in mind, I would expect Mahomes to go berserk in this one as an “I got next” to Tom Brady. It could certainly be a loss here, but let’s be optimistic because we have the best quarterback in the NFL and the defense is playing at its highest level since Steve Spagnuolo took over.
Chiefs 27 Bucs 20
Farzin Vousoughian (2-1)
Everyone is talking about Mahomes vs. Brady with this game. However, don’t be surprised if it’s a low-scoring game. Both defenses are in the top 5 in the NFL going into Week 4. Both QBs will struggle. It’ll come down to which offense is better down the stretch.
Chiefs 17, Bucs 14