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Best and worst case scenarios for every team in AFC West

By Lucas Strozinsky

Dec 16, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) scores the game winning touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers during overtime at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 16, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) scores the game winning touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers during overtime at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 5, 2022; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) during training camp at the UCHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 5, 2022; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) during training camp at the UCHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /

DENVER BRONCOS

Best Case Scenario

After several years of struggling to replace Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, the Broncos shelled out multiple premium picks for another future Hall of Famer in Russell Wilson. Wilson is a bona fide top 10 player at his position and the Broncos finally have a signal caller to take advantage of the talent of receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Javonte Williams is one of the better young running backs in all of football and Melvin Gordon is a very solid second option in the backfield. Their offensive line is also one of the more underrated lines in the NFL.

The Broncos defense is loaded with talent across the field. Patrick Surtain II is one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL, Bradley Chubb is a very good edge rusher, Randy Gregory is also a good player on the edge, rookie Nik Bonitto was a great pass rusher at Oklahoma, and safety Justin Simmons is one of the better at his position in the league.

If Russell Wilson adjusts perfectly to his new team and new coach Nathaniel Hackett turns out to be a successful hire, the Broncos could be a huge problem for their AFC West rivals. They could realistically be the team to dethrone Kansas City and become the first non-Chiefs team to win the division since they did it in 2015.

Best Case Scenario: 12-5, AFC West Champions, Super Bowl appearance

West Case Scenario

Despite all of the hype, it may turn out that Rusell Wilson was part of the problem in Seattle. After returning from his thumb injury last season, Wilson had a completion percentage of 61.5%, 15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and an average PFF passing grade ($) of 58.3, 23rd out of 26 quarterbacks with at least the same number of dropbacks in that time frame. It is fair to say that the injury and Seattle’s below-average offensive line were to blame for his poor play but he may begin to regress a little bit.

Nathaniel Hackett is the only head coach in the AFC West that has coached zero games in the NFL and it is far from known if he is a solid coach in this league. Coaching is critical in the NFL and it can make or break some teams, especially in a division as good as the AFC West.

Another point I don’t see being discussed as much is the effect of Vic Fangio’s departure on the quality of the Broncos’ defense. Denver had a good defense last season but it remains a question what portion was because of Fangio and what portion was talent. New DC Ejiro Evero may very well be a great coordinator but he could also be a bust. I expect their defense to take at least a small step back this season.

Worst Case Scenario: 8-9, Fourth place in the AFC West, Miss Playoffs

Projection

10-7, Third place in the AFC West, Seventh seed in the AFC, Lose in the Wild Card Round

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