Mecole Hardman’s fantasy football stock is up

After an eventful offseason, Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman is suddenly a key receiver for 2022. How should fantasy football managers evaluate the contract-year player?

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman could peak in the 2022 season. But, will it be enough to boost his fantasy football stock?

2022 looks to be a make-or-break year for Hardman. The former Georgia Bulldog came to Kansas City with high expectations, as either a compliment or replacement for then-top receiver Tyreek Hill. Three seasons since, and Hardman remains an overall mediocre receiving option. Fans are split on Hardman’s 2022 outlook, but one thing remains certain: the NFL contract year remains undefeated.

Hardman is a free agent following the 2022 season, a vital storyline entering the season. Players often overperform in their contract years, in pursuit of the all-important second contract. Hardman will likely be no different, especially with a booming wide receiver market. Hardman already has the motive for a big 2022 season, but he has a clear opportunity.

This will be Hardman’s first season not playing alongside Hill. The players certainly have similarities, but Hill was clearly the better receiver. Hardman now has big shoes to fill as Kansas City’s Z receiver, a smaller receiver, serving as both a vertical threat and motion player. Rookie wide receiver Skyy Moore can arguably see looks as the Z receiver, but Hardman is the only notable experienced receiver in head coach Andy Reid’s offense.

As the regular season approaches, how should fantasy football managers evaluate Hardman?

Hardman’s value comes primarily from a lack of Hill, not from a growing role. Sure, he posted career highs in receptions and receiving yards in 2021, but his yards per reception and number of touchdowns have fallen considerably since his rookie year. At the end of 2021, Hardman looked more like a gadget player than a considerable receiving threat. But, there is hope if fantasy managers look at his Week 18 performance against the Denver Broncos.

Hardman saw a greatly expanded role in that game, as many Kansas City starters rested for the coming playoff push. His eight receptions for 103 yards were promising, as he can produce as a feature wide receiver. He saw looks all over the field, at all levels. The talent and ability are there. But, will gadget-player Hardman or uber-productive Hardman show up for fantasy owners in 2022? Unfortunately, logic and projections lean towards the latter.

Even with Hardman’s improved numbers, his 82 fantasy points were a career-low. He ended the season outside the top-50 fantasy receivers, the second time in as many years. FantasyPros projects Hardman to record 95.9 fantasy points in 2022, which would exceed his career-high 94 points from his rookie year. Even that improvement seems improbable, as Kansas City has several receiving options and Hardman may not be a focal point in Kansas City again.

Another aspect to watch is Hardman is already dealing with injury entering the 2022 season. He tweaked his hamstring during OTAs and missed action because of it. Hamstrings can have a mysterious lingering effect. Any hindrance to Hardman’s on-field status will further decrease his fantasy value.

Hardman’s stock is unquestionably higher than it was with Hill around though. At least in the current receiving corps, Hardman has an inside track on other receivers. He has more experience in Kansas City’s system and is the team’s fastest receiver. Barring an injury, early-season-designed looks for Hardman could see his fantasy value rise. Plus, the contract-year statistical boon is an unknown variable for Hardman’s 2022 season.

All in all, there are several factors that Hardman could be a viable fantasy option in 2022. But, there are the same amount of signs pointing in the opposite direction. Hardman still sports a sub-150 ADP in early fantasy drafts, as fantasy managers lean towards the latter. With the options ahead of him, a lot of dominoes have to fall in Hardman’s favor to increase his fantasy outlook.

Hardman will certainly be a key piece to the 2022 offensive unit, but not at the level of a dependable fantasy player.