Kansas City Chiefs’ win projection totals are silly

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images) /

If you ask the experts, the algorithms, the formulas, or the experts, it seems that most projections for the win total of the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2022 regular season are arriving at the same general figure: 10.5.

If that doesn’t quite make sense, given that a team cannot win a half-game, just remember that these figures are for the sake of sports betting. No one believes the Chiefs will win 10.5 games exactly. Rather, the figure is intended to serve as a dividing line stating that bettors must either believe the Chiefs are better or worse than the win projection provided. For the Chiefs, that means pessimists have the team losing at least 7 games and optimists have the team winning at least 11.

In the latest column over at the NFL’s official website, Cynthia Frelund details the league’s win projection totals and states that the turnover at several positions for the Chiefs has created a number of question marks (re: the trade of Tyreek Hill, the departure of Tyrann Mathieu) for the new season. That also doesn’t include the tough schedule which is front-loaded and the AFC West’s new status as the most competitive in football.

NFL.com columnist Cynthia Frelund is breaking down the projected win totals for each team and the Chiefs are listed at 10.6 wins in 2022.

Two things are important to note, however. First, the regular season is now 17 games long, which means that 10 wins is not as meaningful as it used to be. A double-digit win season is now closer to a .500 team than any sort of strong playoff contender, and including Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in that tier of teams seems ridiculous.

It also feels like the algorithms or decision-makers are forgetting the Chiefs’ recent history. This is a team that has won 50 games over the course of four regular seasons since Mahomes became the starting quarterback. The Chiefs were already the class of the division—as illustrated by their six consecutive division titles—but Mahomes’ presence under center has made them untouchable in the division (just ask Denver’s 13-game losing streak). Mahomes has averaged over 12 wins per year and most of those seasons had only 16 games to play.

One bettor has already seized on the low projection with a sizable bet on the Chiefs going over, which should be a safe bet that everyone makes (responsibly, of course).


Even though it’s clear that some analysts want to make a bigger deal out of the roster transition and the offseason work of others, the Chiefs have proven time and again that they are the superior team to most year after year. Until proven otherwise, it feels silly to relegate the Chiefs to anything than the winning franchise we’ve become accustomed to.

Next. Ranking the Chiefs top 15 draft picks ever. dark