FIGHTING TO MAKE THE POSTSEASON
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were able to make the playoffs last season despite the rapidly declining play of Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, they will either have a rookie quarterback or Mitch Trubisky at quarterback this season. That may be enough to make some want to bump them down to the “No Shot At The Playoffs” tier, but I’m just not sure that either of those options will be a downgrade from Big Ben last season. They still have to be seen as a long shot, especially because I still have doubts about their offensive line and secondary, but this is a well-coached team that will play to their strengths.
12. Cleveland Browns
I’m sure this team had Super Bowl aspirations for this season when they traded for Deshaun Watson, but right now it looks like they’ve created a well-deserved mess for themselves. The Browns went all-in on a quarterback with serious legal issues and now it looks like those issues could keep him off the field again for this season. Worse yet, if that does happen they may have damaged the relationship with Baker Mayfield so bad that he may still want out. If that happens this team drops down to the “No Shot” tier. Even if Baker stays or Watson only misses half the season, it just feels like there is a cloud over this team.
11. Miami Dolphins
This is one of the biggest wildcard teams in the AFC. They obviously made a huge splash trading for Tyreek Hill, but how he plays and changes their offense is probably only the third biggest question facing this team. Can Tua Tagovailoa take a step forward in his development and show he’s the future at the position for the team? Will new head coach Mike McDaniel be able to have the same kind of success as his mentor Kyle Shannahan or will this team take a step back after firing Brian Flores? If Tua does take a step forward and McDaniel is the next successful young offensive mastermind this could be the best team in this tier and make the playoffs. If neither of those things happens then they’ll finish near the bottom of the AFC and be looking for a new quarterback.
10. New England Patriots
On paper, I think this team’s roster is worse than most of the others in this tier. However, I’ve also learned not to doubt Bill Belichick. If they could win 10 games and make the playoffs last season in Mac Jones’ rookie season then it’s certainly possible they could do it again this year. I just don’t think they really made any upgrades during the off-season. This isn’t a Super Bowl contender, but it’s still certainly possible we could see another season similar to last year.
9. Tennessee Titans
Other Power Rankings may have Tennessee higher than this, but I think they’re poised for a bit of a step back from last year’s 12-5 record. This team always felt like it was overachieving on its way to the top seed last season and then that looked like it was the case in the playoffs. So I think they were already likely to take a step back, but the loss of AJ Brown on offense won’t help things either. If the passing game struggles without Brown you could also start to see some calls for Malik Willis to play and that could just complicate things more. This will still be a tough team to play week in and week out, but I’m guessing that they’ll probably finish closer to .500 this year. Lucky for them, the AFC South isn’t a powerhouse so if they can finish ahead of the Colts they’ll still be in the playoffs.
8. Las Vegas Raiders
To the Raiders’ credit, this is a team that won 10 games and made the playoffs last season. Then they went out and added two huge big names in Davante Adams and Chandler Jones. Here’s why I still can’t justify ranking them higher than this. Their big additions weren’t really at their areas of biggest weakness. Yes, Adams gives them a true #1 wideout for Derek Carr, but he had Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller last season. Yes, Jones is a great edge rusher, but they had two good edge rushers last season. They just replaced one good edge with a slightly better one. Their offensive line is still their biggest question mark on offense and the rest of their defense outside the edge rushers is still not very good. This is poised to be a slightly better version of last year’s team and I don’t think that will be quite good enough in a loaded AFC.
7. Indianapolis Colts
This is my favorite team in this tier. I believe that this team won nine games last season in spite of Carson Wentz at quarterback. While Matt Ryan may not be what he was in his prime, I think he is a perfect fit for this team. I like Frank Reich and think his teams are well-coached. You combine a solid defense, a powerful offensive line, the league’s best running back, and now a smart veteran quarterback and I can see this team being a real problem this season. They may not be as flashy or exciting as the teams above them on this list, but of all the teams in this tier, they are the ones I am most confident in.
As you can see, this is the tier where I think there are more teams than ever before this season. Most of these teams would be seen as strong playoff contenders in a typical season, but it’s very likely these seven teams will be fighting it out for just one or two playoff spots. Now let’s look at the next tier where a Super Bowl appearance isn’t out of the question.