Chris Jones’ contract creates big questions for Chiefs beyond 2022

The Projected Contract

As alluded to earlier, after the 2022 season, Chris Jones has one-year remaining on his current contract at about a $27 million cap hit ($19.5 million in base salary, $500k workout bonus, and ~$7 million in signing bonus money). Since the base salary and workout bonus are both non-guaranteed, it would save the Chiefs $20 million to release or trade Jones next offseason, while leaving a dead cap charge of ~$7M.

Aaron Donald’s new contract is essentially three years and $95 million, meaning that the starting point for a new contract for Jones will be $30 million/year and will very likely be higher than that. Yes, the entire contract likely won’t be guaranteed, but it will still be at the very least $50 million in guarantees that the Chiefs will have to give Jones, and it will very likely be closer to $60 million in new total guarantees.

Last offseason, the Chiefs converted Jones’ $20 million roster bonus to a signing bonus to create $13.33 million in cap space for 2021. This caused Jones’s cap hit to increase by $6.66 million in both 2022 and 2023.

If the Chiefs decide to extend Chris Jones, due to Aaron Donald’s current contract and potential upcoming extension, they should expect to pay anywhere from $30-35 million/year on a 3-4 year contract.

Using the Salary Cap calculator on Over The Cap, I will outline what a potential contract extension for Chris Jones will look like. Being conservative, I will project that the Chiefs sign him to a 3-year, $90 million contract extension through 2026, with a $30 million signing bonus and a $5 million base salary for 2023. This contract would have $60 million in new guaranteed money, thus guaranteeing around $80 million through 2026 (Aaron Donald got about $95 million in guarantees over three years).

With this projected contract, the Chiefs can get his 2023 cap hit down to around $20 million, thus saving around $7 million in salary-cap space for 2023. Because the cap hit is relatively low for 2023, the projected cap charges for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are $30.5 million, $32.5 million, and $34.5 million, respectively.

Here is a summary of the mock contact:

• 2023: $5 million base salary, $14.541668 million prorated bonus, and $19.541668 million cap hit. (Due to a past restructure, $7.041668 million is fully locked in for 2023, whether Jones is cut, traded, or extended)
• 2024: $23 million base salary, $7.5 million prorated bonus, and $30.5 million cap hit.
• 2025: $25 million base salary, $7.5 million prorated bonus, and $32.5 million cap hit. (The Chiefs can save $3 million in cap space for 2025 by releasing Jones in March of 2025, but incur $29.5 million in dead cap space. If they released Jones post-June 1, it would incur a $22 million dead cap charge for 2025, saving around $10.5 million that season, while absorbing a $7.5 million dead cap charge in 2026)
• 2026: $27 million base salary, $7.5 million prorated bonus, and $34.5 million cap hit. (The Chiefs can save $27 million in cap space for 2026 by releasing Jones in March of 2026, but incur $7.5 million in dead cap space)

This contract would essentially lock Jones in Kansas City through 2025, possibly 2024 if circumstances would create such a scenario.

Even though this contract was just a rough estimate, it should look somewhat similar to what Jones will end up signing with a team (save for a few details such as the signing bonus size and whether the contract is base salary heavy or roster/workout bonus heavy), whether that be with the Chiefs or not. If anything, I believe this projection is an underestimate of what is likely to happen.

In the end, Jones’ return to Kansas City in 2023 just got a lot more uncertain and it will also depend on what other contracts the Chiefs sign between now and next March, how the Chiefs’ 2022 draft class looks this season, and how Jones himself performs in 2022.