We could spend hours debating which Chiefs receivers will get the most production, but below I took a shot at estimating some numbers that would give the Chiefs the exact same average receiver production that they’ve had the past four seasons. If you personally would have these four in a different order or would add a fifth guy to the group, that’s fine, but the point of the exercise still stands.
- Juju Smith-Schuster: 70 receptions, 800 yards, 7 touchdowns
- Mecole Hardman: 60 receptions, 750 yards, 6 touchdowns
- Skyy Moore: 50 receptions, 700 yards, 6 touchdowns
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 39 receptions, 661 yards, 5 touchdowns
Total: 219 receptions, 2,911 yards, 24 touchdowns (K.C.’s exact average for WRs the past 4 seasons)
That’s it. That’s all it will take. No contribution from Justyn Ross or Josh Gordon. No one receiver with more than 70 receptions. No one receiver with more than 800 yards. Just four wide receivers with solid contributions and the Chiefs can maintain their wide receiver production without Hill. I’ll admit I was surprised by how easy it was for me to match the totals I needed.
Not only is the total a reasonable number to reach, but I think those estimates are reasonable for each of those receivers. Juju had 111 receptions for 1,426 yards and 7 touchdowns with Ben Roethlisberger in 2018. I don’t know if he’ll ever match those totals again, but 70/800/7 in Andy Reid’s offense with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback seems reasonable.
Hardman had 59 receptions for 693 yards and two touchdowns last year and had 6 touchdowns as a rookie, so 60/750/6 is realistic if K.C. features him on a few more big plays with Hill gone. Valdez-Scantling’s best season in Green Bay was 2020 when he had 33 receptions for 690 yards and 6 touchdowns, so his estimate is right in line with that.
Then there is rookie wideout Skyy Moore. Rookies are the hardest to predict coming from college. Last year at Western Michigan Moore had 95 receptions for 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 games. Could my estimate of 50/700/6 over 17 games be too high or too low? Sure, but even if he falls short of that estimate by 15 receptions and 200 yards it isn’t hard to add those numbers to the other three guys and still reasonably meet the average total of the past four seasons.
The bottom line here is that the idea that the Chiefs can replace Hill’s production by committee does seem to hold water. If the Chiefs hadn’t had such a black hole of wide receiver production behind Hill the past four years that would have been harder to do, but it turns out that this former weakness could actually help the 2022 Chiefs maintain their offensive success.
I still wish we had Tyreek Hill’s dynamic playmaking ability, but it does look like KC should be able to maintain their offensive production without any one receiver having a huge season as long as multiple guys contribute to the offense. That doesn’t even take into account any increase in passing numbers for the tight ends or running backs (which isn’t out of the question).
So what do you think Chiefs fans? If you take all emotion out of the situation and just look at the numbers, do you think the Chiefs will be fine when it comes to wide receiver production this season? Do you think that this points to the Chiefs being smart to not pay one receiver a massive contract, even if that receiver is Tyreek Hill? I’d love to read your thoughts in the comments below.