Evaluating the KC Chiefs running backs heading into 2022

Where do the Chiefs stand?

For each team, the running back position usually sees a lot of turnover. Running backs have the shortest expected career length in the NFL, according to Statista. Teams committing to one back long-term rarely work out, with Todd Gurley as the case study. McKinnon himself is an example of this, where he sparsely contributed in San Francisco during his three-year tenure there. With that said, Kansas City must address the position this offseason.

Edwards-Helaire is the only running back outlined who is still under contract. The team’s best back is a free agent and might get paid more outside of Kansas City. McKinnon is a fun and intriguing player, but injury history and the dreaded 30-year-old curse loom over him. Gore is not a long-term answer, as he is already 27 years old.

The Chiefs’ running back room looks very unsure for next year. None of the departing running backs are high-priority players, although Williams’ 2021 earned him an 8 approximate value (AV) season, according to Pro Football Reference. The other three running backs combined for 9 AV, Edwards-Helaire accounting for 5 AV. It is a testament to Williams’ value to the team and Edwards-Helaire’s lack of performance. Not good.

All that considered, I think Williams will be back if the financials are right. Spotrac has Williams’ annual salary at $2.2 on the free-agent market. For the peace of mind and security he has provided, that is an acceptable deal. He also knows the Reid scheme, yet another positive.

While McKinnon and Gore may sign in the offseason, they are improbable to make the 2022 53-man roster. McKinnon’s injury history and RB2-ceiling limit his free-agent market, something that the Chiefs should take advantage of. However, McKinnon is replaceable by a speedy rookie or another free-agent option. Gore could be the younger and cheaper replacement, but Gore is ultimately a depth piece. His best games in 2021 show he is not a starting option and is unlikely to develop into one. But, both players would provide short-term depth and provide camp bodies at least.

Predictions

Darrel Williams – Resigns with Kansas City on a two-year, $6 million deal

Jerick McKinnon – Leaves in free agency, parlaying his postseason performance into a good deal

Derrick Gore – Returns to Kansas City on a one-year, vet-minimum deal as ERFA.