Why KC Chiefs vs. Bengals will be very different this time around
Reason 4: Career Days by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase
In the first game between these two teams, both quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase had career days. They were amazing and borderline unstoppable. It was truly impressive to watch. Burrow ended the day 30 of 39 for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions. Chase ended the day with a jaw-dropping 11 receptions for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. These two were the clear main reason the Bengals won that game. So here’s the question. What are the odds they can replicate that performance?
Joe Burrow has now played 28 career games in the NFL. In those 28 games, he has only thrown for 446 or more yards and four touchdowns twice. He did it against KC and against the Baltimore Ravens this season. So he has been able to do that in roughly 7% of his NFL games. Frankly, that’s still impressive, but what are the odds that he can do something that he’s only done in 7% of his NFL games for a second time this season against the Chiefs? Before we answer that, let’s talk about Chase for a second.
Ja’Marr Chase is just a rookie and all signs point to him being an absolute star, but his 11 receptions for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns were all season (and thus career) highs. So in order for him to match that production, he would have to hit all his career highs in this game too. That seems unlikely, especially when you factor in that he got those 11 receptions on 12 targets. He was basically perfect all game with one huge play after another. I don’t care how awesome someone is, that is a bar that is going to be incredibly difficult to match again.
Now, you can argue that the reason Burrow and Chase were able to go off like this was because of Steve Spagnuolo’s game plan and that if he is stubborn and uses that same game plan in this game (that wouldn’t be out of character for him) that it is possible that Burrow and Chase have big days again in this rematch. My argument would be that even if Spags uses the same approach for some or even most of this game, what are the odds that Burrow and Chase can pull off equally jaw-dropping results. 446 yards passing with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions? Catching 11 of 12 targets for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns? What are the odds of that best day of your life kind of execution happening twice against the same team in the same season?
I don’t doubt that both Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will have good games in this rematch. I just haven’t seen a track record that says we should bet on them going absolutely bananas again. Make no mistake, it took every bit of that bananas production to beat KC the first time. Can they do it again on the road, especially if the officials are letting the defensive backs play a little more physically? If they do I will tip my cap to them both and write next week about how they deserved to advance to the Super Bowl. I just don’t think it’s likely.
Finally, let’s talk about who the Bengals will have to deal with in this rematch.