Chiefs AFC Championship History & Betting Trends Offer Huge Value Against Bengals
By jsummers
With one of the most incredible performances we’ve ever seen, Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to a thrilling 42-36 overtime win against the Buffalo Bills and is hosting his fourth-consecutive AFC Championship Game Sunday at 2:05 PM CST.
WynnBET has the Chiefs as 7-point favorites and -330 on the moneyline (bet $33 to win $10) while the over/under is set at 54.
What can we learn from the Chiefs’ previous AFC Championship performances to help us win our bets in this one?
Chiefs AFC Championship Betting Trends
Here are Mahomes’ stat lines in his three AFC Championship games:
- vs. New England Patriots – 16/31 for 295 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions with 2 rushes for 11 yards. He engineered a game-tying drive in 30 seconds before losing in overtime, 31-37.
- vs. Tennessee Titans – 23/35 for 294 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions with 8 rushes for 53 yards and a touchdown. He overcame a 10-point deficit to win 35-24.
- vs. Buffalo Bills – 29/38 for 325 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions with 5 rushes for 5 yards. He overcame a 9-point deficit to win 38-24.
You’ll notice he’s kind of incredible in these moments. You’ll also notice that a lot of points were scored in each game.
But as a bettor, it’s even more interesting that “a lot of points” also meant all three games hit the over. In fact, the real total cleared the over by more than 7 full points in each game. It hasn’t been close.
The #Chiefs have averaged 33.2 PPG in the playoffs with Mahomes as QB. it’s the highest PPG by a starting QB in the playoffs in NFL history, min. 5 starts
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 24, 2022
Death, taxes, Mahomes playing in the AFC Championship game, and the Chiefs scoring (and conceding) a ton of points when they get there.
With a history of flying over the total in playoff games and a defense that has already struggled to stop the Bengals (allowing 34 points in Week 17), all signs point to another high-scoring game this Sunday.
Whether you like the Chiefs to cover the 7-point spread or not, it’s the over/under that offers the real betting value here. It’s easy to love the over 54 this week.