KC Chiefs vs. Bills: Betting preview and advice for Divisional round

The most ferocious matchup on the road to Super Bowl 56 will be played this weekend on Sunday Night Football. 

The Buffalo Bills are traveling to Arrowhead for a true clash of modern titans, and a shot to play for the Lamar Hunt Trophy. It will be the fourth installment of the newfound Chiefs and Bills rivalry that gained steam when Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen first collided in October of 2020.

WynnBet has the Chiefs favored by -1.5 (-125 on the moneyline) and has set the over/under at 55. The history of this young rivalry is short but provocative; here are the details of the Chiefs and Bills recent history, and hosbfw that information will help to formulate the best bet for Sunday night.

All odds listed come courtesy of WynnBET.

Mahomes vs Allen head-to-head

Patrick Mahomes has played an enormous role in the Chiefs 2-1 record over Josh Allen and the Bills since 2020. In those three games he has thrown for 822 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Allen, on the other hand, has an almost mirror image of a stat line in those games; 724 yards, 8 touchdowns (one rushing), and 2 interceptions.

What makes this cross-country rivalry so exciting is the prospect of longevity. Mahomes and Allen could very possibly remain atop the AFC in terms of quarterback play through the entirety of the 2020s, and they will serve as core pieces of the new era of quarterbacking that has emerged in the past three to five seasons.

With Mahomes’ 138.2 rating, and Allen going near perfect (157.6) last week, this fourth game between these two should theoretically serve as the apex of competition between K.C. and Buffalo thus far.

Betting by the numbers

With stellar quarterback play being a staple of games between the Chiefs and Bills, high scoring has been a consistent result. Point totals have averaged 54.5 over the past three matchups, with the lowest total, 43, coming when the Bills became a victim of a stellar start to the Chiefs’ defensive season in 2020. Spagnuolo’s defense opened the 2020 campaign by allowing 20 or less points to 7 of their first 8 opponents, and they held Buffalo to 17 in their first ever contest against Josh Allen. All things point to the over on Sunday night with both of these offenses scoring over 40 points in their Wild Card matchups last week.

The Bills won in Kansas City in Week 5 this year by a score of 38-20, and although the Chiefs defense was yet to sign Melvin Ingram, and played that game without Chris Jones or Willie Gay, it’s hard to imagine that the Buffalo offense will be stunted in their second postseason trip to KC in two years (2021 AFC Championship).

Two of the three times these teams have met in the past two seasons have been decided by two touchdowns or more, but that should not be expected in the divisional round. The spread is at 1.5, and Vegas is rarely wrong in calling out a great ball game. Although the Chiefs are 2-1 against the spread in games against these Bills (-3 in last years AFC Championship, -5.5 in their first matchup in 2020), betting the moneyline and the over would appear the safest bet for Sunday if the predicted shootout is to break out.

Picking the Chiefs to cover comes with -110 odds, and the moneyline sits at -125, so you really won’t be losing too much bang on your buck by playing this one conservatively.

Favorite props

Josh Allen over 46.5 rushing yards (-120). He has run for an average of 68.6 yards per game in the three times he’s faced Kansas City, and has displayed no signs of that trend changing in his past five games where he averaged 60 yards a game.

Bills total points over 27 (-105) / Chiefs total points over 27.5 (-110). If you ask me, the final score in this one is 33-35 Chiefs, so these both feel like low hanging fruit. Both defenses suppressed their opponent on Wild Card Weekend, but neither of their opponents had near the fire power of these two offenses. I’m bought all the way into the shootout.

Blake Bell anytime touchdown scorer (+1000). If this shootout is going to come to fruition, Mahomes will be spreading the ball out like crazy, and Bell will have a shot at being the wildcat QB or receiver of the vintage shovel pass down at the goal line. +1000 against a piece of this offense scoring in the most hyped game of the season is too much to pass up on.