There are a variety of possible outcomes in Week 18 that would lead to a third matchup for the Chiefs against either the Chargers or Raiders in the playoffs. Saturday’s game, however, will be the last time anyone sees the Broncos, and the line tells the story. Kansas City is hitting the road as 11 point favorites and the points total is set at 45.5. Vegas is calling for a lopsided Chiefs victory with that spread, and the total number is tempting as all get up.
Here’s a breakdown of some Chiefs vs Broncos betting history, and trends from this year to guide your betting decisions for Saturday.
All odds listed come courtesy of WynnBET
Betting Chiefs vs Broncos historically
Digging into the recent history of this rivalry unearths some compelling considerations. Since 2018, Kansas City is 5-2 against the spread in matchups with Denver. The two times they missed the cover were as 9 and 13 point favorites. The Chiefs are 2-1 ATS as double-digit favorites this year and have covered six of their previous seven spreads (including -8.5 against Denver on December 5th). Without any research, I can all but guarantee that is the best stretch ATS thus far in the Mahomes era.
As far as points go, since 2018, there has only been one over hit in the seven games between these teams. An average total of 49 was set by Vegas through that stretch, with a high number of 53.5 coming in 2018 when the Chiefs offense was historically good, and a low number of 43 when Drew Lock was cementing his legacy as a below-average quarterback at the tail end of 2019.
If these trends continue, taking the Chiefs -11 and the game going under 45.5 would be a lock. However, Denver’s secondary was riddled with injury this week, and the Chiefs offense—averaging 34 points over its last five games—is cooking with gas, and should be expected to continue its high octane performance this week. In other words, recency bias overwhelming the history + notable injuries = HAMMERING THE OVER on Saturday!
Broncos ATS in 2021
To round this thing out responsibly, here is how the Broncos have done against the spread this year and what that means for the upcoming game.
Denver is 7-8 ATS this season and has successfully covered double-digits three times—twice as favorites. The only time they were a double-digit dog was in Week 9 when they traveled to Dallas and shocked everyone with a dominant 30-16 victory. The Broncos have covered two of the five times they were underdogs this year, but running out QB2 and a battered secondary doesn’t bode well for Mile High Faithful betting on the Broncos +11 on Saturday.
In terms of betting the total, Denver’s 2021 campaign, unfortunately, does not offer any confidence to believe in my call for the over. As a matter of fact, taking the over on Saturday is almost exclusively a statement of belief in Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The highest total set by Vegas in any Broncos game this year was 50, and even with that low of expectations for scoring, Denver has only hit the over four times this year. They have gone under a total of 45 or less nine times this season.
A 31-17 final has appeared through the cloud of my crystal ball. Who of you will join me in taking the Chiefs in every way imaginable on Saturday?