KC Chiefs vs. Chargers: Analyzing the betting lines and odds for Week 14

The Kansas City Chiefs are traveling to everyone’s second home field in Los Angeles for Week 15 action against the Chargers. Kansas City is favored by 4 points, sits at -205 on the moneyline (bet $205 to win $100), and the points total (over/under) is set at 51.5.

Here’s some historical context from this season to help you decide which wager is the winner this week.

Chiefs Against the Spread

Throughout this current winning streak, the Chiefs have been a covering machine. They are 6-7 on the year against the spread, but 4-2 over the past six games. There are two main points to consider in regards to the spread for Thursday: the number and the opposing quarterback.

In regards to the number, the Chiefs are 2-3 ATS this year when favored by four points or less. The three losses, all of which were outright, came in the first half of the season. The Ravens were +3.5 point dogs in Week 2, the Bills +2.5 in Week 5, and the Titans +4 in Week 7. K.C.’s two wins ATS took place over the current win streak when they covered -2.5 against both the Raiders and Cowboys in succession (Weeks 11 and 12).

All three times the Chiefs failed to cover a smaller spread this season came against AFC contending quarterbacks. Justin Herbert, as the signal-caller for the Chargers, sits atop a short list of reasons why L.A. is in contention. With that said, it would be wise to consider the entirety of the situation on Thursday when choosing where to place your bet. The division is on the line, and the Chiefs have struggled against the top QB’s in the conference this year, but then again, the defense has been reborn — that is why they call it gambling.

Chargers Against the Spread

The Chargers were underdogs in Vegas’ eye only four times in the first 14 weeks of the season, and they faired pretty well against those odds. LA is 3-1 against the spread as dogs, and all three wins were outright victories. They came out on top against Washington in week one at +2.5, beat the Chiefs in week three at +7, and covered +2.5 against Cincinnati two weeks ago with a convincing 41-22 victory.

Honing in on Chargers vs Chiefs in week three — the final score was LA 30 – KC 24 and the Chiefs had four turnovers. It seems safe to assume that had the offense taken care of the ball in that game, the Chiefs would have taken a W. Given the improvement that’s been displayed since the infamous 3-4 start, you’d be hard-pressed to convince someone the Chargers are (currently) a better team than the Chiefs. Once more, gambling.

Over/Under 51.5

The first thing to catch the eye in this matchup is Herbert vs Mahomes. It’s their fourth meeting as divisional foes, and the first three met the hype of what’s expected when two giants are thrown in the arena. Granted, the under has hit in two of those three games, but the lowest point total was 43, which came about in Herbert’s first career start.

If the Chiefs’ offense is going to build on their bludgeoning of the Raiders last week, they will be inducing a high-scoring affair. Additionally, if the pass rush continues on its same trajectory, they will be flushing Herbert out of the pocket at a high rate. If that’s the case, given what we’ve seen from the young QB, he will have a chance to showcase his flashy, Mahomes-esque, skillset in response.

That all suggests the over is a shoo-in bet on Thursday, but in the spirit of responsibility, here’s a quick snapshot of how both teams have fared against the over/under this year. The Chiefs have played in 10 games with the points total set at 50 or more, and have hit the over in five. The Chargers have played in six such games, and have only hit the over once. Betting the over or the under on Thursday will come down to where you put your stock: The Chiefs D, the Mahomes vs. Herbert hype, or the gritty nature of playing for the division.

No matter what, with the implications that it carries, this ought to be one of Thursday Night Football’s best installments of the year. Give me your bets in the comments below, and may the odds be ever in your favor.