Realistic expectations for the 2021 Chiefs
Through five games the Chiefs have the number one DVOA even after facing the third hardest schedule of defenses. They’re currently fourth in total yards and fifth in points per game.
The Chiefs remaining schedule currently ranks 21st in the league in strength of defense. There’s a good chance this elite offense is going to produce above their current averages of 420 yards and 31 points per game and more consistently in the remaining stretch.
Some also might remember how objectively poor the Chiefs defense was to start the 2019 season. The team started 6-4 due in large part to the struggles of the defense. As the season waned, though, the defense found its rhythm and became an objectively solid defense. In the second half of each playoff game, they completely locked down teams that had been playing extremely well.
While the unit has had some turnover, I’d argue it is at least as talented if not more so than it was in 2019. The biggest problem is the rotation. There are questions to answer and clear decisions to be made, but I’m confident we’re on the verge of both those things happening.
If both an improved offense and defense played the prior five-game slate, the Chiefs are at worst 4-1. With their schedule declining in difficulty, it’s realistic they could win the majority if not all of their remaining games.
The race for the one-seed will undoubtedly be tight, but the Chiefs still have a shot at accomplishing that goal. Even if they don’t, is there really anyone that believes this team can’t catch fire and win four games en route to a Super Bowl? Especially, when a very inconsistent Tampa Bay Buccaneers team did just a year before?
At the end of the day, your favorite team can’t win the championship or even play in the championship every single season. It’s a statistical improbability that has played out over the last 101 seasons of NFL history. Even so, there’s no reason at this point the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs can’t avenge last season’s loss and bring home their second Lombardi trophy in three seasons.