Chiefs vs. Bills: Rain and wind could have a big impact
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will square off on Sunday Night Football tonight in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. The stakes will be high as both Kansas City and Buffalo are expected to compete for the top seed in the AFC playoffs.
Unfortunately for the crowd prepping to head to Arrowhead Stadium, Mother Nature doesn’t seem to be interested in providing clear weather. Current forecasts are calling for rain, wind, and thunderstorms, which won’t be an ideal situation for two of the NFL’s most explosive offenses.
The question is, which team, if either, will the poor weather favor? If you take the football experts on Twitter, for example, the bad weather will help the Bills. And the Chiefs.
But what is the reality?
The simplistic view of these types of situations is that bad weather will impact offenses the most, especially offenses that like to throw the ball. In that case, both the Bills and the Chiefs would be impacted equally.
There are obvious pitfalls with bad weather. Grip for the QBs and other ball handlers could be spotty. Wide receivers could slip on their routes, causing disruptions in timing and potential interceptions.
While all of the above is certainly true, don’t sleep on the weather being a potential advantage for the offenses. After all, receivers know which way they are going to be cutting and the guys defending them don’t. This gives the receivers an advantage in poor conditions because they can be extra careful going into their breaks to make sure they keep their feet. This might slow the breaks down a bit, but the defenders still need to react quickly, so they are much more likely to slip or have a difficult time getting enough traction to catch up to receivers making sharp cuts. We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes play well in the snow before against the Denver Broncos. I don’t think Andy Reid and company will be afraid to air it out in the rain.
The bigger concern might be the wind. Mahomes is brilliant, but sudden gusts of wind can blow even a Mahomes bullet-pass off course. Tonight’s game could see wind gusts of 17 to over 20 mph. This could significantly impact the deep passing game, forcing both offenses to rely on short to intermediate throws and the running game.
Speaking of the running game, I think that is where the Chiefs could find an advantage. The Chiefs ran the ball very well against the Bills last season and Kansas City has a much better offensive line in 2021. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is coming off back-to-back 100+ yard rushing games and seems to be running with more confidence. If the weather gets really ugly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs turn to CEH and Darrel Williams.
As for Buffalo, they are running more than the Chiefs and averaging more rushing yards-per-game, but the Chiefs actually do better on a per-run basis. Kansas City is averaging 5.1 yards-per-carry (the same as the Cleveland Browns) while Buffalo averages 4.5. Both teams benefit from mobile QBs, with Josh Allen a little more likely to take off than Patrick Mahomes.
The forgotten x-factor here? The crowd.
There is just no getting around it. Fans don’t like to sit in the rain. That means a lot of fans will take cover in the concourse area and some will decide not to attend. This will limit the crowd noise, energy, and overall Arrowhead Advantage. The Chiefs are still better off being at home as opposed to on the road in Buffalo, but once the rain starts, the atmosphere is going to lose a bit of its electricity.
Speaking of electricity, it isn’t just rain and wind in the forecast but thunderstorms as well. Lightening delays are definitely possible here. While starting and stopping the game will be annoying for both teams, at least the Chiefs will be in their home locker room while they wait.
Hopefully, the forecast changes and the weather holds off long enough for the game to be completed. If the rains come, however, the team that is able to keep its focus and limit mistakes will gain the edge.
Let’s hope that team will be the Kansas City Chiefs.