2. Patrick Mahomes – Throwing Yards (309.5)
If it sounds weird to suggest the under for throwing yards on Patrick Mahomes, we understand. I think we always expect to see Mahomes break through whatever the ceiling is in front of him, but the truth is that the yardage marker set for Sunday’s game is right in the sweet spot at 309.5.
Last season, Mahomes went under that total 7 times in 15 starts. He can put up a 300 yard game and dominate on offense and still come up short of that total, which is what we’re suggesting here for bettors who are wanting to take a gamble on how Mahomes will throw on the day.
Many of the performances in which Mahomes takes it easy on the yardage total are games in which the competition wasn’t all that great and the team could ride the running game for much of their first downs. Philly’s line is tough, but the Chiefs were getting great interior push just last week in the loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and there’s reason to believe the maulers assembled there—Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith—are starting to gel.
In short the Eagles shouldn’t be too frightening to need to rack up the air yards and the run game should generate enough movement to take the under here.
Pick: Under (-110)