The case for and against the Denver Broncos as contenders

REASONS TO PAUSE

They’ll need more than depth to contend

If the Ravens showed the league a blueprint for beating the Chiefs, it’s that you have to score a ton and grab some opportunistic turnovers. While the Broncos have solid depth at receiver, and Bridgewater has looked sharp thus far, that alone may not cut it against the likes of the Chiefs. Denver is going to need to transcend their depth to contend, and that starts with Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is going to need to be better than effective and sharp to lead this Broncos team on a run. He is, after all, the key to unlocking the potential in that receiving core.

In another division, mere effectiveness on offense could be enough to contend with a roster like the Broncos. But early indications suggest the AFC West is going to be competitive. The Chiefs will always be able to pour on points, the Raiders have looked more explosive this year, and we know Justin Herbert and the Chargers also have that scoring capacity. The point is, in order to be viable in the AFC West, you are going to need to be able to turn it on and pour on the points when needed.

The Broncos boast impressive depth across the board, but do they have that home-run capacity, that may be required to keep up with the Chiefs, or even the Raiders and Chargers consistently? Sure, Sutton, Jeudy and Hamler are excellent, but scoring heaps of points is only possible if the offense can reliably activate their potential, play-by-play.

Let’s turn to the defense. I complimented the Broncos’ depth in the secondary earlier, but if they want to contain the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders, that defense is going to need to be able to play at their potential with regularity.

Do we think that they can devise a game-plan to keep Kelce, Hill and Mahomes in relative check? Do we know if they can be expected to limit Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs and a sharp Derek Carr? How about Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen? This issue isn’t really about the Broncos specifically, though. After all, it’s a tall task to ask any defense to shut down those teams with consistency, which tells you that the Broncos are likely going to need exceptional offensive production to score big division wins.

I’m not sure the Broncos are built to win in shootouts against the Chiefs, Chargers and even Raiders. Equally, I’m not sure that in today’s NFL any defense is capable of consistently limiting the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. To contend in the AFC West, the Broncos are going to need one or the other: a high-powered offense, or an unbelievable defense. The notion of a truly historic defense seems unlikely, simply because it’s 2021 and good offenses (like the ones in the AFC West) are always going to find a way to produce.

So, to match their division foes, the Broncos will need more than a sharp Bridgewater, they’ll need a dynamic, electric Bridgewater to really get the most out of this receiving corp, and the overall depth on offense. The early returns are good, but Denver is going to need to tap into a different level on at least one side of the ball to score key wins in this division. Their depth on both sides is impressive, but to contend, they’ll need to tap into a truly high level of play, which depth alone does not afford.

Talk to me after October

The Broncos have played the Giants and Jaguars so far this season, teams that, so far, feel destined to pick in the top 8 of next year’s draft, if not higher. This early in the season, a lot of projections about a team’s quality are still largely hypothetical. The Broncos get the Jets week 3, so we may not be able to put the ink to any serious takes until October, where they face a tough stretch of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Cleveland.

The Broncos have impressed this season, and deserve credit for a strong start despite playing poor opponents. If a high quality quarterback was the missing ingredient for this Broncos team, the early success of Teddy Bridgewater may be a sign that they’ve found that missing part. Their depth ought to stave off the impact of injuries, and it appears their premium draft investment (Patrick Surtain) has been a hit.

So are we buying the Broncos? Well, I’m buying the idea that they are a focused, talented unit that is built to stay competitive for the whole season. I’m not buying them as a threat to the Chiefs until they show a sustained level of high quality play at Quarterback and offensive efficiency. If the Broncos can sustain their nice beginning to the season, we may have to (begrudgingly) buy the Broncos. But let’s chat after October.