Should you draft your favorite KC Chiefs in fantasy football?

Should you draft Mecole Hardman in fantasy football?

Let me start this section by saying that I really like Mecole Hardman. He seems like a fun guy and his explosive playmaking ability makes him a weapon that I’m happy is on the Chiefs roster. Predicting his production in his third season is a little tricky. I think there is a strong chance that Hardman has his best NFL season this coming year. That having been said, I probably won’t have Hardman on any of my fantasy teams this season.

When I am looking for wide receivers to target in the later rounds to have on my bench I am looking for two different types of guys. The first are guys that get enough consistent targets to be a reliable option if I have a starter on a bye week or out with an injury. These guys may not have elite upside, but they are steady options that can make sure you don’t have a huge hole in your lineup when the starter is out. Marvin Jones is a good example of this kind of option.

The other type of bench wide receiver that I’m looking for are guys that I think could break out and be true fantasy football starting caliber guys. Most years I’m looking at rookies or second year players that could have a break out type season that can help carry your team to fantasy football glory. Nothing helps a fantasy team more than a late round guy breaking out and becoming a star.

My problem with drafting Hardman is that I don’t see him as fitting either of these profiles. Hear me out for a second. At the end of the 2021 season I can see Hardman having a stat line that looks like he was a good fantasy bench player option, but I just don’t think he will be reliable enough to put in your weekly lineup. While there are reports out there about Hardman replacing Sammy Watkins this season, I can’t see Andy Reid completely moving away from using a true “X receiver” like he has his entire coaching career. Can he draw up more plays that have both Hill and Hardman on the field at the same time? Sure, but he’s still going to use a traditional X receiver on a regular basis and those snaps are going to go to some combination of Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, and Cornell Powell.

So that means that Hardman has Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce that are going to take the vast majority of the target share and then has to compete for the rest of the snaps and targets with the bigger wideouts that are a better fit to play on the outside, the running backs like Edwards-Helaire who many expect to get more targets, and Noah Gray who many fans expect to be involved in the offense more than previous back up tight ends. That just doesn’t sound like a situation that is going to lead to consistent numbers week in and week out, even if Hardman ends up being the most productive option out of all of those.

If I had to guess, I would say that Hardman will have a handful of big games here and there surrounded by games where he has 2 catches for 30 yards. Sure if one of those big games hits when your starter is on his bye, you hit the jackpot, but what are the odds that you time that just right? The competition in KC’s offense just makes Hardman too unreliable to be a guy I feel safe counting on when I need a fill in and the presence of Hill and Kelce makes it unlikely that Hardman ever becomes a guy that breaks out and is a huge fantasy steal if they are healthy.

On Fantasy Pros, which combines rankings and draft positions from various sites, these are wideouts #53-59 in terms of average draft position right now.

53. Marvin Jones
54. T.Y. Hilton
55. Mike Williams
56. Mecole Hardman
57. Elijah Moore
58. Rashad Bateman
59. Russell Gage

If I’m looking at this range, I think Hardman (as much as I like him in real life for the Chiefs) might be my last choice for may fantasy team this season. Jones and Hilton should be the kind of veterans that get enough consistent targets that they could be good options as a weekly spot start if someone is out. Williams is a starting wideout for one of the top young quarterbacks in the league and has both big play and redzone upside. Elijah Moore and Rashad Bateman are both rookies for teams that don’t have much at wide receiver, giving you at least some hope of a fantasy breakout season and Russell Gage could be a big benefactor of Julio Jones leaving town and defenses having to focus on Calvin Ridley and rookie Kyle Pitts.

If you want to draft Hardman on your fantasy team and hope for a big year, you go right ahead. He’s just a guy I’ll probably choose to root for in real life over fantasy football.

I think that’s the end of the discussion for fantasy relevant Chiefs in most typical leagues this season. Unless you are playing in a REALLY deep league I don’t see any of the Chiefs other running backs or wideouts as fantasy relevant. I guess if you invest in Travis Kelce in the first or second round and wanted to draft Noah Gray as an insurance policy in case he got hurt, I can understand that, but even that may be a stretch. As far as Harrison Butker and the KC Defense go, don’t draft them before the last few rounds. Period. Butker is a good fantasy kicker, but not worth reaching for. You can wait on your kicker to the end of the draft. I don’t hate the idea of using the Chiefs defense as one of a couple defenses that you use based on matchups, but they aren’t good enough to reach for.

So what do you think Chiefs fans? Do you agree with my assessments of these Chiefs in fantasy football this year? Do you think I’m completely off base with any of them in terms of where you will target them? Do you go out of your way to target your favorite Chiefs in fantasy football or is it a non factor when drafting? I’d love to read your thoughts in the comments below.