Patrick Mahomes’ greatest offensive fireworks could come in 2021
By Matt Conner
The floor is already higher for Patrick Mahomes than it is for anyone else in the National Football League. Given that he’s won one league MVP and led the K.C. Chiefs to consecutive Super Bowls, the base line of expectations for Mahomes is already sky-high coming into a season. Anything less than a Pro Bowl level line of production is going to be viewed as a letdown.
It might sound weird, then, to think that Mahomes could actually elevate his game in 2021 to even greater heights.
We all know that Mahomes produced last year on the run, working behind an oft-leaking line that was dealing with more injuries up front than any season in recent memory. However, to take things further, check out the following table from Zach Drapkin:
This table tells us what we already know about Mahomes, of course. One look makes it clear that he’s head and shoulders above the rest, and that there are very few surprises here in terms of which quarterbacks are productive and which are not.
However a further look at the EPA stats (expected points added) show just how effective Mahomes can be when he’s given actual time to play. No one in the NFL is more dangerous when having time to throw the ball, yet last year was clearly a challenging year for Mahomes in that category. Mahomes often had to go on the run to extend plays and give receivers time to get open, and the Chiefs went to to work this offseason to ensure that would not happen ever again.
The Chiefs offensive line has been completely rebuilt this offseason with this very idea in mind: to protect Mahomes and allow his natural talents to be the difference in the game.
Coming into the offseason, the Chiefs were unwilling to deal with any more questions or health concerns for another season. Mitchell Schwartz could have become healthy again after missing so much time with back pain, but the Chiefs let him go. The same can be said of Eric Fisher’s Achilles injury. just like that, Mahomes’ two bookends were going to be new in ’21.
Fortunately the Chiefs hit a home run, at least it seems, on the left side with the trade for Orlando Brown, Jr. The cost was significant in the form of a first-round pick but they have a young Pro Bowler set at the position with a likely long-term extension to come. On the other side, a bright young talent in Lucas Niang is set to compete with a solid veteran like Mike Remmers.
Along the interior, which was in need of a significant upgrade even without injuries, the Chiefs invested heavily in both the draft and free agency. Joe Thuney was signed to a big-money deal to leave the New England Patriots at left guard, and Creed Humphrey was brought in at center. Kyle Long was an import at right guard, but the position also saw Trey Smith arrive via the draft and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif back from a year away from the game.
The Chiefs are loaded along the line enough for us to even consider how they might offload some of that competition in order to gain future draft assets in trades with other needy teams. The depth goes three-deep at some positions and there’s plenty of versatility to last for the rigors of a 17-game season and postseason.
Last year, Mahomes was working behind multiple backups and even some street free agents at times, guys signed at the last minute and forced into very meaningful reps. This coming season, he’s going to be working behind a legitimate top-tier line in the NFL with security at every single spot. In a game that comes down to milliseconds, this remade line is going to give Mahomes that much needed extra time, which could mean we’re seeing more fireworks than ever from the Chiefs.