ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is always a must-read for NFL fans for his insights into the game and his deep knowledge of the league’s rosters. Typically his predictions for potential moves present a solid scenario for fans to considers, but in his latest round of projections for post-June 1 signings, he’s got one for the K.C. Chiefs that really doesn’t offer anything at all for the team—except the well-known name of Todd Gurley.
At this point, Gurley is a free agent running back still waiting on a place to land even after the likes of Kalen Ballage and Ameer Adbullah have already found homes. There’s a reason for that. Gurley’s lack of productivity in recent seasons (likely due to overuse in prior years) have left him a shell of his former self, despite still being relatively young at the age of 26.
After posting two of the best seasons by a running back in the last decade, Gurley has averaged only 3.7 yards/carry over the last two seasons combined. That number dropped to 3.5 last year in his lone season with the Atlanta Falcons, although he’s remained bullish in the red zone with a strong 21 touchdowns on the ground in the last two years as well. He’s also averaged a scant 6.6 yards/catch as a receiver. Those averages are steep drops from his first four seasons in the NFL, when he averaged 4.4 yards/carry and 10.1 yards/catch.
While the Falcons weren’t a great team in 2020, it’s not as if Gurley has been playing for pitiful offenses for the last few years. And Barnwell even admits that Gurley “ranked 44th out of 47 backs in DVOA last season.” To that end, it makes very little sense for the Chiefs to add Gurley, unless they want to turn some heads with a name-only signing.
The Chiefs should have little interest in RB Todd Gurley.
The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire coming into his second season in the league, and it’s a safe bet to anticipate him making a serious leap forward after a full season in the pros. The Chiefs are also paying quite a bit for Darrel Williams to return as a restricted free agent (at a $2.1 million deal), a player they trust very much as exhibited by his postseason usage. Williams gives the Chiefs a solid runner and a well-rounded back who knows the offense and does all the little things fairly well.
The Chiefs decided to let Le’Veon Bell leave in free agency and waived Damien Williams as well, but then they filled one of those spots with Jerick McKinnon as a low-risk signing intended to capitalize on his second season away from ACL surgery. McKinnon has great hands out of the backfield and is a very willing blocker who is also elusive as a runner. He just happened to sit behind Adrian Peterson in Minnesota and then suffered a serious injury just after signing a big-money deal with the San Francisco 49ers.
Given the presence of Darwin Thompson also on the roster, it’s just hard to believe the Chiefs would have any real expectations for a player like Gurley given his recent history. If anything, Gurley would attract attention due to his familiarity for the average NFL fan, but those in the know would realize he hasn’t been relevant to a team’s offensive success in a couple years.