Predicting what an Orlando Brown extension would cost the KC Chiefs

The K.C. Chiefs trade for former Baltimore Ravens offensive tackle Orlando Brown was surprising to many. Since Brown was only 24 years old and in the last year of his rookie deal, the expectation was that an extension would be reached in conjunction with any deal. The Chiefs are not going in that direction, according to multiple reports. Instead, an extension is more likely to occur near the end of the season or into the offseason. A franchise tag is also possible. However, given the compensation included a first round pick, a long-term extension is the most likely outcome.

With how GM Brett Veach has treated contracts during his tenure as the Chiefs, you can expect a back-loaded contract that amounts to the top of the league in overall price. Looking into the future, the basics of Orlando Brown’s future extension can be predicted based on Veach’s history, the predicted cap increase next season and comparing other contracts for the top left tackles in the NFL.

One player who provides a good contractual comparison for Brown’s future extension is his former teammate, Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley. Stanley signed a five year, $98.75 million contract extension ($19.75 million annually) with the Ravens early in the 2020 season. Stanley has been one of the best left tackles in football and will be entering his first year of the extension this year, and he signed his contract as a 26-year-old. As the 6th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, he lived up to his draft value and the Ravens rewarded him with this lucrative contract. Brown looks to be in a very similar position to Stanley.

Brown is only 24 years of age and will most likely be 25 when he signs his extension. He will also be blocking for one of the premier quarterbacks in football, similar to Stanley. Both are considered top level tackles, and the only difference is that Stanley has played left tackle exclusively. Being teammates, Stanley had the hold on the left tackle position from Brown until he fractured and dislocated his ankle in a Week 8 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. From then on, Brown stepped in and had a similar impact at the position.

Let’s make our prediction of what an Orlando Brown extension could cost the KC Chiefs.

According to Over the Cap, only three other left tackles make more annually than Stanley: David Bakhtiari of the Green Bay Packers, Trent Williams of the San Francisco 49ers, and Laremy Tunsil of the Houston Texans. All make over $22 million annually, with Williams at the top at $23,010,000. The major difference between Williams and Bakhtiari versus Tunsil, Stanley, and Brown is that they are older veterans who have extra years of proven production. This may provide a difference in how much Brown receives annually.

Looking into the smaller details of the contract, this is where the Chiefs’ cap situation will be most in effect. Brown’s extension will most likely be back-loaded, with the more expensive years near the end, as the cap will only grow higher. The guarantees of the extension will probably give Brown full insurance until the very end of the deal, similarly to other highly-paid linemen, including Chiefs guard Joe Thuney. Speaking of Thuney, having their contracts end in the same year could prove difficult, if the Chiefs would hope to retain them after their first contracts with the team.

Assuming Brown continues his Pro Bowl level play next season for the Chiefs, his extension will be in the range of these four left tackles. Given Veach’s willingness this offseason to pay Williams over $20 million annually, expect Brown to go over that as well. With the expected increase in salary cap starting next season as well, Brown’s extension could even push himself over Williams’, making him possibly the highest-paid left tackle in the NFL.

Contract Prediction: Five years, $120 million, $80 million guaranteed ($24 Million annually)