Kelechi Osemele presents KC Chiefs with risky variables in free agency

Kelechi Osemele earned himself a tremendous amount of good will after making just four starts for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020.

Heading into another offseason, it’s not hard to find members of Chiefs Kingdom excited about the idea of bringing back Osemele again in 2021, given that he originally signed a one-year deal with the team last summer. The Chiefs have offensive line needs, and Osemele is an offensive lineman. The marriage looked good at the start of 2020, so it makes sense to believe that the veteran guard could return once healthy and provide what the team needs heading into 2021.

Ever since the Baltimore Ravens made Osemele their second round selection in the 2012 NFL Draft, Osemele has been an overwhelming physical presence for the Ravens and, later, the Oakland Raiders at left guard. After four seasons in Baltimore, he earned a big contract to anchor the Raiders’ line in 2016 and he responded with consecutive Pro Bowl seasons—a period during which he furthered his reputation as a mauler to the rest of the AFC West.

While injuries forced the Raiders to trade Osemele to the Jets (he was going to be cut if New York didn’t step up with a swap of draft picks), Osemele did lose the bulk of a season due to a shoulder surgery and resulting rehab. However, when the Chiefs signed him at the beginning of the 2020 season, he looked like the Osemele of old—a strong, experienced presence that filled a left guard spot that has been nothing but a revolving door for a very, very long time. It was nice to see such an imposing presence in the interior.

As simple as this partnership sounds, there are some risky variables involved with re-signing that complicates the picture. It’s not as simple as “need meets availability.” In fact, even that picture is a bit muddied since need those very terms—”need” and “availability”—themselves need to be defined before heading into the NFL’s free agency period.

Let’s take a closer look at Kelechi Osemele’s free agent profile for the Chiefs.

The case for coming back

Let’s be honest: the carousel at left guard has been a frustration for a long time. The Chiefs have gotten by with average or below-average play at the position since Andy Reid first arrived. Any sort of promise at the position is generally ruined by an injury of some kind—from Jeff Allen to Parker Ehinger to Osemele.

Osemele tore tendons in both knees in Week 5 for the Chiefs, which meant the team had to, once again, turn to a backup player shortly into the season. Nick Allegretti did a very fine job holding down the starting spot from midseason through the entire playoff run and even started in the Super Bowl. However, no one expects the Chiefs to just sit back and maintain status quo at the position.

Osemele is now familiar with the team and the offense, and he signed originally with them for good reason. He’s still chasing a ring, and the Chiefs offer him the best spot to get one. Meanwhile, assuming he can return from his knee injuries, Chiefs fans loved what they saw in the four-game “audition” from 2020 enough to see it for a hopefully much longer stretch in 2021.

The case for letting go

After eight years of watching a new starter every single year at left guard, it makes sense for the Chiefs to finally make a considerable investment and fill the spot in the draft with an early pick. Relying on a veteran like Osemele to return just feels like more of the same, and those sorts of decisions finally caught up with the Chiefs in the playoffs as Patrick Mahomes ran for his life in a valiant effort for the losing side in Super Bowl LV.

Here’s the bottom line: Osemele will be 32 years old next summer with a total of 8 games played in the last two years. He tore tendons in both knees on a non-contact play against his old team, the Raiders, which means knee problems will be the latest health concern for a player who has missed a lot of time with other injuries since 2017. Counting on him to not only get healthy but come back and securely own the starting position just feels like a big ask, even for a player who was as much fun to watch as Osemele.

The likelihood of a return: 25 percent

Perhaps the Chiefs bring back Osemele on the cheap with the idea of pairing him with younger competition in 2021. That’s fine. That’s what a lot of fans already want, and if Osemele is healthy, there’s not a single fan who won’t be excited as can be. But also remember this: the Chiefs didn’t even sign Osemele until late July last year, which meant he was available to anyone until it was time to go to training camp. In short, it’s just impossible to know if this is the end for Osemele until health reports come in on his knees some point soon. Can the Chiefs wait for that? Is it healthy for them to do so? It seems more likely that both sides will move on.