The Kansas City Chiefs’ first game in the “Run it Back” tour is this Sunday against the Cleveland Browns. How should you bet on the game?
In their last two playoff campaigns (or as some people would call it, since Patrick Mahomes became the starting QB), the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-1 ATS and have hit the over in 3 of those games. Sure, the Cleveland Browns are 100% against the spread in that same stretch, but that consists of one game, which was last week’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This season, the Chiefs are only 7-9 against the spread, thanks in large part to being double-digit favorites in almost every single game they played this season. However, this is still better then the Browns, who went 6-10 against the spread this season.
This Sunday, the Chiefs and Browns will clash in Arrowhead in a vital Divisional Round matchup. We are examining the betting odds for that game and have advice for sports bettors interested in getting financially involved.
[Author’s Note: Bet at your own risk, I am not a financial professional or advisor. Betting odds provided by FanDuel.]
Over/Under – 57.5 points
This is 28 points a piece, which normally seems pretty small, but based on the matchups, does not seem likely.
The Browns are a run heavy team, built on the elite talents of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and Kevin Stefanski is smart to know that he needs to use those legs to pound the ball, eat the clock, and control the momentum. The Chiefs’ defense allowed the third-highest rushing yards in the league. The Browns should actively try to make this the lowest scoring playoff game all weekend, although with the Chiefs’ offense, that may not be very possible.
The Chiefs’ offense can score at will, especially in the playoffs, so it is possible for the Chiefs to score upward of 35 to 40 points, especially on the Browns, who struggle against Air Raid offenses (the Chiefs maybe officially a Spread offense, but they operate like an Air Raid offense). This means the Browns would only have to score 21 points essentially, and although the Chiefs do not give up rushing touchdowns, they do give up a large number of touchdowns to tight ends.
I would take the over on this matchup, due in large part to the Chiefs offense being rested and ready to strike. If the Browns get to have their way early, then it will be the under, but I highly doubt that happens.
Spread: Chiefs by 10 points
Another Kansas City Chiefs game, another double digit spread.
The Chiefs are favored by 10 points this weekend, which seems odd, especially when considering the main matchup in this game: the Browns ground and pound versus against the Chiefs’ defensive front seven. Sure, the Chiefs were preparing for the Browns/Titans/Ravens for two weeks, and Andy Reid‘s post-bye record is insanely good, and Patrick Mahomes is undefeated after a bye, and Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the league going against some of the worst coverage linebackers in the league, but it feels like the spread should be closer.
I have been vocal about my concerns for this matchup for the Chiefs, but I do still think the Chiefs win the game. The question is, do I trust them enough to cover a 10-point spread?
The Chiefs, if they go up early, always phone it in during the last quarter and let teams score in garbage time, typically putting up a score that does not at all reflect the reality of the game. The Browns, however, struggle in the latter parts of the game, as they consistently let teams come back in the fourth quarter. For this reason, the Chiefs are likely going to roll, cover the spread, and beat the brakes off the Browns to prove a point to start the playoff campaign with a statement.