KC Chiefs vs. Jets: Betting lines, odds, and advice for Week 8

A breakdown of the matchup and betting odds and lines for Chiefs-Jets.

If you want to simplify this week’s matchup between the New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs down to the most simple of terms: the Chiefs are the NFL’s best team and the Jets are the NFL’s worst. Sure, this is an NFL game and anything can happen, but to act like there is any sense of parity between these two franchises right now is a joke.

The Chiefs’ are 6-1 and just a few wins away from a guaranteed playoff spot less than halfway through the season. The Jets are 0-7 and are close to locking down the number one draft pick less then halfway through the season.

The Chiefs have the second most takeaways and interceptions, while allowing the eighth least points scored, tenth least yards, seventh least first downs, and sixth lowest scoring percentage. Meanwhile the Jets have the least points scored in the league, second to last passing yards (but on more attempts then last place, thus giving them the lowest net yards per pass in the league), second to last passing touchdowns, second to last rushing touchdowns, second most offensive penalties committed, and the lowest scoring percentage.

And that’s just a comparison of the Chiefs defense to Jets offense.

Because of how unevenly matched this week’s game is, betting lines are so steep. Let’s look at the lines to see how to bet them and weigh their worth.

(Author’s note: Bet at your own risk. All odds are provided by Fanduel Sportsbook.)

Spread: Kansas City by 19.5

This is the Chiefs’ largest spread of the season, which is saying something, since the Chiefs have already had some steep, double digits spreads already this season.

A nearly 20 point spread is probably about right for a matchup this uneven, even if it deters almost every sports bettor looking to place money throughout the Chiefs season. Actually it was matchups just like this that pushed sportsbooks and the betting community to embrace the “Spread” format as a way to keep bets from getting too one-sided and to allow blowouts to stay interesting.

We are not asking whether or not the Chiefs will win this game, but by how much.

A common misconception about the Jets is that they do nothing correctly, when in reality, the Jets’ defense has actually been serviceable. They have grabbed the 9th most turnovers in the league, allowed the 13th least rushing yards per attempt, and the 14th best turnover percentage. Is it perfect or elite? No, but it has put the Jets in situations to win games against the Broncos and Bills and could give the Chiefs some issues. However, they are up against one of the best offenses in the league this week and those stats may drop significantly.

The rushing offense of the Chiefs has had great performances the last two weeks, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire running like a man whose team just brought in a veteran running back to challenge his starting position. Patrick Mahomes has been throwing beautiful passes all season when necessary, and his connection with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill is on a different level. The Chiefs secondary is one of the best in the league right now despite all of the injuries and suspensions, and Tyrann Mathieu is quietly having a great season.

The real standout in this game, however, is obviously going to be the Chiefs newest addition, Le’veon Bell. Bell was just released by the Jets, and his relationship with Adam Gase has never been good. Bell will obviously have a desire to put the hurt on the man who potentially derailed his career and his team. That is without mentioning that Bell spent a year and a half in the Jets’ system and likely knows that playbook better then any of the other players on the field, meaning he is likely feeding Andy Reid as much information as possible on the offense.

This game already should not be even close, but with the information that Bell is going to be able to feed to the coaches and the motivation he is likely going to have, taking the over on a 20-point spread seems reasonable.

If you have to bet on the spread, take the Chiefs to win and cover, and maybe buy some extra points because the Chiefs are going to embarrass the Jets on the scoreboard with a hope to put the backups in to preserve bodies. Honestly, I would not bet on any spread that has a 20 point swing, but if you have to, take the over.

Over/Under: 49 Points

The Chiefs could genuinely score 49 points by themselves in this game. It is a legitimate possibility and the Jets would not have to score a single point for the Over/Under. However, is it likely? Maybe not.

Andy Reid is not the style of coach that tacks points onto an opponent just to embarrass them and before it becomes a 30 point game would like move backups onto the field on both sides of the ball. Once Reid does this, Gase would be wise to do the same, but it is not guaranteed because it is the worst coach in the league.

So I feel safe giving the Chiefs 30 to 35 points in this matchup, and that only requires 14 to 19 points from the Jets, which is not a point total I am willing to give the team with the lowest point total in the league. Take the under because the Jets are not scoring many points on the Chiefs, if any at all.