We break down and explain the main lines for Mondays match-up between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.
What did we learn in Week 5? For the second time this season, we learned that divisional matchups are hard to predict, that the Kansas City Chiefs are not invincible, and for some reason, every time I am overly confident in a line, I tend to be wrong.
However, like the Chiefs, we are moving past Week 5 and focusing on Week 6’s matchup against the Bufallo Bills.
(Author’s Note: Bet at your own risk. All odds are provided by Fanduel Sportsbook)
Spread: Chiefs by 4.5
This line has moved quite a bit this week, with the Bills actually being favored to win as of Monday, but thanks to an embarrassing loss to the Tennessee Titans on Tuesday, the Bills have lost favor in the lines.
Normally I would never bet against a team coming off an embarrassing loss like the Bills had this week. However there are quite a few more factors to take into account here.
The Bills are technically working off a short week, having played Tuesday against the Titans and having only six days to prepare for the Chiefs. Thankfully for them, this is a home game so they do not lose rest time to the road. The Chiefs have a full week and a day to practice and stew over the embarrassing loss they suffered to the Las Vegas Raiders last week.
These factors already lean towards the Chiefs, and we have not even taken the matchup into account yet, which also predominantly leans Chiefs.
The Bills defensive line struggles to get to the quarterback (actually the league worst in terms of QB pressure percentage) despite blitzing more than most other teams in the NFL. The Chiefs biggest weakness, their offensive line, may have one of their easiest challenges of the season, which will only serve to make Patrick Mahomes‘ job easier and give him more opportunities to hit targets down the field.
The Bills offensive line let the Titans defensive line live in the pocket, making Josh Allen roll out on most of his dropbacks. He would then hold the ball for another 2 or 3 seconds before tossing the ball. Unless the Chiefs want to call the defense as poorly as they did this last week, they will have Allen running all game long, which is not sustainable.
I am taking the Chiefs to cover the spread, although if the spread gets any larger, I would consider taking the Bills to lose within the spread because I am expecting a one touchdown or smaller win for KC.
57.5 points? In a game that is likely to be a defensive battle? Really?
Pound the under. I really do not even feel like I have to justify this decision, it is the only right decision.