Kansas City Chiefs favored by 11.5 points over New England Patriots

The Chiefs are 11.5 point favorites over the visiting Patriots.

You have heard about the Cam Newton news probably a thousand times by now. Between ESPN’s constant stream of notifications to online commentary from every new COVID-19 expert, the news is everywhere. For that reason, I am not going to waste your time by rehashing the same talking points and offering the opinion of yet another 20-something who has no medical expertise onto the internet.

Instead, we are going to focus on the game we are getting tomorrow night between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots. There’s a new round of odds and lines that sportsbooks have put out. The lines have moved significantly, so let’s take a closer look.

[Authors’ Note: Take yesterday as a great example as to why your should bet at your own risk. Also all odds provided by Fanduel Sportsbook.]

Spread: Chiefs -11.5

Cam Newton’s removal from the game only shifted the spread by 4.5 points. Newton should probably take that personally because that is insulting.

Brian Hoyer is the expected starter in Newton absence, which is like trading in a Charger (the car, not the crappy football team with the terrible trainers) for a Hot Wheel. At 34-years-old, Hoyer is 16-22 as a starter in his career with 52 touchdowns and 34 interceptions. He has traveled around the country as a journeyman backup QB, playing for the Indianapolis Colts last season before returning to the team that signed him as an undrafted free agent back in 2009.

Hoyer has not won a game as a starter since 2016 (he led the Chicago Bears over the Detroit Lions). Since then, he has lost 17 games with 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Hoyer has never started a game for the Patriots, although he was used early in his career back when the Patriots defense was putting games away in the first half.

Sure, the Patriots offense is really based around the running backs and the screen game, but without the athleticism and overall distraction for the defense that is Cam Newton, the Pats are going to be toothless on the offensive side of the ball.

However, the Chiefs are 11.5 point favorites and that spread is huge. That is a two touchdown victory against a Bill Belichick-coached defense. Is that really a reasonable feat?

Yes, yes it is. Unless the Chiefs’ offense pulls off their own Jets impersonation, they are going to score—a lot—and the Patriots offense will not be able to keep up. I would take the Chiefs by 17 if it were the line. The Chiefs will want to sit the starters for the sake of the upcoming schedule, so putting it on the Pats early would also give them that opportunity.

Over/Under: 49.5

The Over/Under line only drops 4 points with the Newton news, which is, again, insulting. Unless the think the Patriots are going to score 21 points with Hoyer as their starter, take the under. This is one of the easiest lines of the season, so you should be able to make some money.