A look at betting odds and lines with some perspective for Chiefs-Patriots.
The Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots rivalry is either over or near over after Tom Brady took his talents to Florida.
Sure, the rivalry was about more than just Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. It was about Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski, Andy Reid and Bill Belichick, the 2017 season opener and the 2018 AFC Championship. It was about a scrappy underdog with Skywalker energy going up against the Evil Empire, looking to overcome the odds and end the dynasty.
However, Brady’s gone to Tampa Bay and took his loyal dog Gronk with him. The Patriots have a pair of victories to redeem the embarrassment they suffered in their 2017 home opener, and the Chiefs have a victory and a Super Bowl to redeem the way that their 2018 season ended. Pretty much the only remaining part of the rivalry is the coaches, but is that enough to carry and maintain this competition?
Even if there’s not a significant rivalry at work, there is still potential for a great game. With any great game, there are plenty of sports bettors looking to get in on the action, and so today, we want to help our readers get an edge on those sports bettors.
[Author’s Note: I do have money on the outcome of the these scenarios. I am not a professional sports bettor. Bet at your own risk. All odds provided by Caesar’s Sportsbook.]
Spread: Kansas City -7
Chris Jones is listed as questionable for the game with a groin injury, and if he does not play, absolutely do not take the Chiefs to cover the spread under.
However, if he does play, that make this an interesting line. On one hand, 7 points is a huge spread, and as we learned in Week 2, betting for a team to cover a spread of this size is super risky. On the other hand, the Chiefs just went all Stone Cold Steve Austin on the Baltimore Ravens and stomped a mud hole all over M&T Stadium despite the fact that the Ravens were regarded as the best team in the AFC.
The New England Patriots are a completely different team than the Ravens. Belichick is 100% smarter when it comes to football then any other person on the planet, Cam Newton does not give up when he starts trailing, and Belichick has actually won a game against Mahomes.
If I’d written this last week, I would have been taking the Patriots to either win of lose by less than a touchdown. However, that was before the Chiefs did what they did to the Ravens and before Newton’s performance against the Raiders.
Newton only had 162 yards, went 17 of 28 with 1 interception and 1 touchdown. Of those 162 passing yards even, 126 of those are YAC yards, meaning it was not even Cam’s tossing that moved them down the field. In addition, 14.3 percent of his passes were wildly inaccurate, and that is despite only being pressured on 22.6 percent of his passes.
On the ground, he had 9 carries for 27 yards, but if you factor out his one 21 yard rush, he averaged .75 yards per carry. He got outplayed by Derek Carr, and if it had not been for Carr attempting his best Daniel Jones impression with two fumbles, the Patriots may not have won this game.
Put that into perspective of what Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes did last week, and this just may not be a game. I am taking the Chiefs to win and cover the spread, maybe a couple times over.
Over/Under: 53
The Chiefs have grabbed the under the last couple of weeks, thanks in large part to their defense’s ability to bully opponents outside of the first quarter.
Sure, the Chiefs can score the points necessary to cover their share of the total, but the Patriots are a huge question mark. Newton has shown some early struggles, but I would be willing to bet this partially has to do with his lack of offensive weapons. However, the Chiefs defense is smothering opponents, and I would feel pretty comfortable taking the under.
However, if Chris Jones does not play, pound the under.
Without K.C.’s key piece in the middle of the line to stop the run, the Pats are going to bleed the clock and take possessions away from the Chiefs.