Texans vs. Chiefs: Betting odds, lines and advice for Week 1

Let’s look at the lines and odds for the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans’ matchup in Week 1.

The rise of sports betting and the destigmatizating of the hobby has been a highlight of the last few years. Games that normally do not mean a thing outside of the most hardcore of fans and committed of fanbases has made even the NFL’s terrible Thursday and Monday Night Football games feel exciting thanks to casual sports betting.

Still, the most exciting and rewarding betting opportunities are those attached to the big games of the seasons. The games with the most on the line, or the games with the most media coverage that has everyone claiming to be a football expert  (like notorious football analyst Snoop Dogg, longtime ESPN personality DJ Khaled, or even the true Nostradamus of football, Andrew Yang). Those games see the most people putting their money where their mouth is, which keeps the lines interesting. The movement is fun to keep up with.

The first game of the season is always huge, just by virtue of being the first contest in seven months. In the sports betting community, it is even bigger, with all of the sportsbooks and sports betting venue running deals and promotions to welcome their legions of new bettors.

That game is even bigger when it is played between two of the league’s powerhouses like it is this year. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans are the future of the NFL, and anytime Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson square off, the whole world is watching.

To help longtime bettors and people new to the hobby alike, we are going to run down the odds and lines available for the game that will kickoff the NFL’s 101st season.

Author’s note: I have money at stake in these results, however I am not a betting professional per se. Bet at your own risk. Also all odds are provided by Caesar’s Sportsbook online.

Spread: Chiefs by 9

[Note: The spread has been lowering everyday since Saturday for some reason, starting at about 11 points on Saturday, and now sitting at only 9 points. This section could be outdated by the time you finish reading, so stay on top of it at the Caesar’s Sportsbook website.]

The Chiefs team that won the Super Bowl in February only lost three starters this offseason, one to free agency and two to COVID-19 opt-outs. They upgraded at one of those positions in the draft (Clyde Edwards-Helaire at running back) and have brought in significant help for one of the others. This means that nearly the exact same offense that scored 31 points on the San Francisco 49ers elite defense is going to be playing the weak and often ineffective Houston Texans’ defense.

The last time these two teams matched up, it was in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Chiefs offense did whatever they wanted against Texans defense, with the only thing stopping the Chiefs from running away with it early was their insistence on dropping every pass. After spotting the Texans 24 points (only 10 of which had anything to do with the defense), Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs turned it on in the second quarter and never looked back.

Scoring 7 straight unanswered touchdowns, the Chiefs would win the game 51-31, and build on that comeback and narrative all the way to the Lombardi trophy. Since then, the Chiefs have only gotten better. As for the Texans…

Look, I do not claim to be an expert in managing an NFL team, nor am I an executive in one of the most profitable businesses in all the world, but what I do know is that you do not trade one of the most valuable players in football in Deandre Hopkins for an injury prone running back who has only had two good seasons in the league.

Bill O’Brien rightfully gets alot of slack for his management of the Texans, and with the exception of getting Watson’s extension done, almost all of his offseason moves are only going to serve to make the Texans worse. If I had to bet on a team not making the playoffs that made it last year, this is that team.

All that being said, a 9-point spread is massive, and every instinct is normally to bet against the favorite covering a spread that large. Given the matchup nightmare facing the Texans, and the chemistry of the Chiefs, I would heavily consider giving the Chiefs both the win and the spread.

Over/Under – 54.5

Twenty eight points apiece. All that is required for the over to be reached is for the two best quarterbacks in the league to score about 28 points on each side. Of course, if we are still taking the Chiefs at the spread, it is more like the Texans have to score 23 to the Chiefs 32 points. If you do not think that these teams will put up points like that in the season opener, you do not know what modern football looks like and I would advise uninstalling Fanduel from your phone and deleting your MyBookie account.

Just a reminder that the last time these two teams met, it was in January, during the playoffs, in Arrowhead and they managed to put together 82 points combined. The time before that, the Chiefs defense was still struggling against the run and Patrick Mahomes was injured and the teams combined for 55 points.

This is one of the easiest lines in the entirety of sports betting. Take the over. Matter of fact, in the wise words of Shonlock, “Bet ya house on it.”