How every AFC West team could win the division in 2020
By Grant Tuttle
Las Vegas Raiders
Overview
Let’s face it, the Raiders are a mess that no one understands. That’s not to say that they are without talent, but rather that they are a bundle of question marks. Derek Carr has not been a top-tier quarterback and is notoriously safe while Jon Gruden is at the beginning of his monster 10-year deal. This combination has led the Raiders to very little success over the last several seasons.
The Raiders have more of an uphill climb than any other team in the AFC West, but they do have interesting pieces on their defense. Jonathan Abram, when healthy, looked very talented last season. Despite a poor season in 2019, Lamarcus Joyner is still a very good safety as well. The emergence of Maxx Crosby as pass rusher should not be forgotten or overlooked, either.
That being said, there are certainly a lot of unanswered questions on both sides of the ball. Sure, Henry Ruggs III is fast, but how will he fare in an NFL offense. If not him, who will be the top receiver? Is Derek Carr going to remain the starter, or will Gruden look to Marcus Mariota as a potential redemption story to take over the job? The Raiders could surprise, but how?
Mike Mayock, draft master?
There are very few stories in sports like Mike Mayock. As one of the resident “draft experts” at ESPN, Mayock was hired to be the General Manager of an NFL team as Gruden, of course, worked alongside him in some capacity. Mayock’s career as GM has been shaky at best to start, particularly in signing veteran players. Antonio Brown had a weird experience with the Raiders and was quickly dismissed after signing a monster contract with the team. Trent Brown, although a talented player, was given an obscene amount of money to play at right tackle that many would argue was too much.
The draft picture may be a bit different, but it is too early to tell. Of the talent Mayock has added via the draft, there are very few that have taken a starring role on the team. The Raiders dropped jaws when they took Clelin Ferrell in the top five of last year’s draft. Ferrell has been a nice piece of the defense and shows some potential, but it is still unclear whether he can be truly dominant at the professional level. In fact, Maxx Crosby has looked more of the part of a starting-caliber defensive end than Ferrell.
The only immediate star drafted by Mayock has been their running back Josh Jacobs. The jury is still out on virtually every other player that Mayock has drafted. There is definite potential, but if the Raiders hope to be competitive this season, Mayock must prove to be the draft genius that Gruden hoped that he would be.
Derek Carr responds to competition
While many Raiders fans are still believers in Derek Carr, it appears that his leash may be getting tighter. The Raiders signed Marcus Mariota this offseason after he was replaced in Tennessee by Ryan Tannehill. Gruden and Carr may be on their last run together if there is not a noticeable increase in production this season. After signing a big extension in 2016, the Raiders will have much less dead cap space if they release Carr next offseason.
That being said, the young talent on the Las Vegas offense is certainly intriguing. Hunter Renfrow is a solid pass catcher and Ruggs is capable of catching the deep ball. If there was ever a time for Carr to rejuvenate his career it is in 2020.
As afrorementioned, Jacobs is a potential star at running back. With Gruden’s love for old-school football, the pressure may be somewhat lifted from Carr, but that does not mean that expectations are low. The Raiders have invested in wide receivers and will need Carr’s best on crucial third downs.
When you look at the receivers on the roster: Tyrell Williams, Ruggs, Zay Jones, Nelson Agholor, and Renfrow, it is easy to see that these are all new players to the roster. In fact, none of them have been on the team for longer than two years. If the Raiders hope to compete for the AFC West, Carr must get the most out of this group of wide receivers.
Raiders defense makes the leap
The Raiders made headlines when they moved Khalil Mack to Chicago for a haul of draft picks in 2018. In 2020, they seem to still be missing his production.
In the front part of the defense, there are a number of guys that may make a big step in 2020. The Raiders will need improvement from everyone, but none more than Clelin Ferrell who posted just 4.5 sacks in his rookie season. Maxx Crosby posted 10 as the top pass-rusher on the team.
Getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks was not the only struggle for the Raider defense last season. The back end of the defense was riddled with injury, including Abram, who was one of the team’s top picks of 2019. The problems ran even deeper in the secondary than injury. Joyner went from being a top safety in the NFL, to looking like a cornerback in the bottom tier. PFF ranked Joyner 110 out of 115 eligible cornerbacks. The Raiders moved Joyner to cornerback to take over a role that was vacant and that did not go as planned.
They will now be relying on Joyner, Prince Amukamara, and Demarious Randall to lead a group of inexperienced players on the back half of the field. If they hope to slow teams like Kansas City, they must have the absolute best from their defensive unit, no matter their inexperience and inadequacy from a year ago.