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Kansas City Chiefs: Analyzing Andy Reid’s historic use of rookies

By Lyle Graversen

DAVIE, FLORIDA - JANUARY 30: Head Coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on during the Kansas City Chiefs practice prior to Super Bowl LIV at Baptist Health Training Facility at Nova Southern University on January 30, 2020 in Davie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
DAVIE, FLORIDA - JANUARY 30: Head Coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on during the Kansas City Chiefs practice prior to Super Bowl LIV at Baptist Health Training Facility at Nova Southern University on January 30, 2020 in Davie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /
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FAYETTEVILLE, AR – SEPTEMBER 9: Kyle Hicks #21 runs the ball behind the blocking of Lucas Niang #77 of the TCU Horned Frogs during a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on September 9, 2017 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Horn Frogs defeated the Razorbacks 28-7. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
FAYETTEVILLE, AR – SEPTEMBER 9: Kyle Hicks #21 runs the ball behind the blocking of Lucas Niang #77 of the TCU Horned Frogs during a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on September 9, 2017 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Horn Frogs defeated the Razorbacks 28-7. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /

Lucas Niang

Many Chiefs fans were wanting KC to add some depth and competition to the offensive line in the draft and they did just that when they took TCU’s Lucas Niang in the third round. In Andy Reid’s 21 previous drafts, he has taken 32 offensive linemen. While only one other lineman was taken in the third round, 11 were taken in rounds 2-4.

Here are some important averages to consider when projecting Niang’s contributions this season:

  • Reid’s 3rd round picks: 10.1 games active, 3.3 games started
  • Reid’s OL draft picks: 4.4 games active, 3.1 games started
  • Reid’s OL 2nd-4th round picks: 4.4 games active, 3.7 games started

Remember, in Reid’s entire head coaching history, he has only had three players drafted in the third round start double digit games for him their rookie season. When you combine that with the fact that both the averages for all OL that he has drafted and OL drafted in the same general range as Niang both are around 3-4 games started on average, it doesn’t make it sound like the odds are in Niang’s favor for being a regular starter this season.

Similar to what we said about the competition (or lack there of) at linebacker potentially helping Gay get more starts than the averages suggest, you could make that case for Niang. However, the Chiefs do have multiple options at guard, including Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Martinas Rankin, Andrew Wylie, Nick Allegretti, and Mike Remmers. So I don’t think that a prediction of 3-4 starts for Niang would be out of line.

While going through Reid’s history of offensive line picks I did find one interesting comparison for Niang. In 2005, Reid took a 6-6, 323 pound lineman named Todd Herremans in the fourth round. Herremans would play and start just four games his rookie season, but went on to be a great starter for Reid in Philadelphia at both tackle and guard. Niang is similar in stature and has been discussed as possibly playing both guard and tackle as well. If the Chiefs could get a long term career out of Niang even close to that of Herremans, it would be a huge success as a third round pick.

Next up, let’s see what Reid’s history predicts for K.C.’s fourth round pick.

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