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Kansas City Chiefs: Analyzing Andy Reid’s historic use of rookies

By Lyle Graversen

DAVIE, FLORIDA - JANUARY 30: Head Coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on during the Kansas City Chiefs practice prior to Super Bowl LIV at Baptist Health Training Facility at Nova Southern University on January 30, 2020 in Davie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
DAVIE, FLORIDA - JANUARY 30: Head Coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on during the Kansas City Chiefs practice prior to Super Bowl LIV at Baptist Health Training Facility at Nova Southern University on January 30, 2020 in Davie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /
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AUSTIN, TX – SEPTEMBER 07: Clyde Edwards-Helaire #22 of the LSU Tigers rushes for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on September 7, 2019 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
AUSTIN, TX – SEPTEMBER 07: Clyde Edwards-Helaire #22 of the LSU Tigers rushes for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on September 7, 2019 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

The Chiefs turned some heads when they spent their first round draft pick on running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The consensus is that he will be a great fit for the Chiefs offense. The debate over the pick was more about the value of taking a running back that early. That’s not a discussion we’ll get into today; instead, let’s see what Andy Reid’s use of rookie running backs can predict for Edwards-Helaire this season.

Here are a few key rookie averages to start with.

  • Reid’s 1st Round Picks: 12.3 games active, 6.3 games started
  • Reid’s Running Back Draft Picks (15 total): 9.1 games active, 2.3 games started

These averages give us a decent starting point, but Andy Reid has never used a first round pick on a running back before, so this is a little bit of an uncharted territory. In fact, Andy Reid has only used his first round pick on an offensive “weapon” (RB, WR, TE) twice before this draft and both of those picks were on wide receivers (Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin). In those cases, both players were active for 15 games with Maclin starting 13 and Mitchell starting just one. So the average games active for first round offensive skill positions would be 15 and the average starts would be 7. That might not be a bad place to start expectations for Edwards-Helaire this season.

The only running back that Andy Reid drafted close to where Edwards-Helaire was picked was LeSean McCoy who was taken in the 2nd round with the 53rd pick overall. McCoy would go on to be a highly productive weapon for the Eagles. McCoy was active for all 16 games his rookie season with 4 starts. He ended the year with 637 yards rushing, 308 yards receiving, and 4 touchdowns. That’s not a bad rookie season, but I have a feeling that some Chiefs fans would be disappointed with those numbers for Edwards-Helaire this season.

Edwards-Helaire has often been compared to a former Reid draft pick in Brian Westbrook. Westbrook actually had much lower numbers as a rookie than McCoy did, with just 3 starts, 193 yards rushing, 86 yards receiving, and zero touchdowns. The only rookie running back to put up big numbers in Andy Reid’s career was Kareem Hunt in 2017. Hunt started all 16 games, but only after predicted starter Spencer Ware was lost for the year with an injury. Hunt went on to rush for 1,327 yards, had 455 yards receiving, and 11 touchdowns.

While it would be tempting to predict Hunt’s stat line for Edwards-Helaire based off his talent, draft slot, and fit with the offense, I think a more realistic expectation would be the number of games by Reid’s previous first round offensive skill position players (15 games, 7 starts) and a stat line close to or a little higher than that put up by McCoy in his rookie season under Reid.

Now let’s look and see what history tells us to expect for K.C.’s second round linebacker.

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