KC Chiefs averaged just over 11 wins in Pro Football Focus simulation

The Kansas City Chiefs average 11.2 wins per simulation as the folks at Pro Football Focus attempt to sim the 2020 season for results.

Now that NFL rosters have largely settled following the 2020 NFL Draft and the majority of impact players in free agency having found a new home, Pro Football Focus has decided to attempt to simulate the results of next season to get a read on how the standings might ultimately look in the end.

Per Eric Eager of PFF, the team used their “PFF Elo rating system, our grades and some market data” to put together 10,000 simulations of the regular season. Further definitions here are a bit fuzzy, although there is some attempt to further define the ELO system:

"As opposed to most other ELO systems, PFF ELO doesn’t use the final score to update the rankings. Instead, we compute what the final score should have been based on the player grades."

As for the final results, the Chiefs came out on top in the AFC West with an average of 11.2 wins per simulation. Interestingly enough, the Chiefs aren’t just winners of the regular season in their division. They are the only truly dominant team in the entire NFL.

By a total amount of wins, they are one of only two teams with an average of double digit wins per sim with the Baltimore Ravens. Even then, the Chiefs are nearly a full win over the Ravens who come in at 10.5 wins per simulation.

Beyond that, the Chiefs are expected to decimate the AFC West, given the next closest team is the Las Vegas Raiders at 7.5 wins per sim. The Denver Broncos immediately follow at 7.4 wins per sim, while the Chargers land at 6.4 wins per sim. That sort of deficit (3.7 wins) between first and second in a division is by far the biggest stretch, eclipsing the 2.5 game lead the Ravens hold over the Cleveland Browns.

Other winning teams like the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers finish just below the 10 win threshold. Some divisions are sunk entirely below the .500 mark (see the AFC East where Buffalo Bills lead the average sim with 7.9 wins/sim).