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2020 NFL Draft: Which positions hold best value for Kansas City Chiefs?

By Lyle Graversen

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - APRIL 25: A general view of video board signage during the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft on April 25, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - APRIL 25: A general view of video board signage during the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft on April 25, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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ARLINGTON, TX – APRIL 26: A video board displays an image of Rashaad Penny of San Diego State after he was picked #27 overall by the Seattle Seahawks during the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft at AT&T Stadium on April 26, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX – APRIL 26: A video board displays an image of Rashaad Penny of San Diego State after he was picked #27 overall by the Seattle Seahawks during the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft at AT&T Stadium on April 26, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Running Backs

Let’s start with the running backs drafted between picks 25-48.

TJ Yeldon, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, and Kerryon Johnson.

Now let’s compare that group with the running backs taken in the third round of those same drafts.

Charles Sims, Tre Mason, Terrance West, Jerick McKinnon, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Matt Jones, Kenyan Drake, C.J. Prosise, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, D’Onta Foreman, James Conner, Royce Freeman, Darrell Henderson, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, and Alexander Mattison.

The running back groups are interesting. There are great starting running backs in both groups. There are some solid contributors in both groups, and there are some guys that are already out of the NFL in the third round group. Here are the actual percentages.

Picks 25-48:

  • 100% still in the NFL
  • 78% started at least one game in 2019
  • 33% have made a Pro Bowl (Henry, Cook, and Chubb)

Third Round:

  • 70% still in the NFL
  • 45% started at least one game in 2019
  • 20% have made a Pro Bowl (David Johnson, Kamara, Hunt, and Conner)

So the percentages for running backs taken with picks 25-48 are pretty similar to both the cornerbacks and linebackers taken in the same range. There doesn’t seem to be a big difference in the hit rate in that first group. The second group is where things start to get interesting here. For the first time we see a fair amount of talent in the third round group. In fact, more Pro Bowl running backs have been drafted in the third round (4) of the past six drafts than in the 25-48 range (3).

This is where my argument for not drafting a running back in the first round comes from. If KC were to pass on a cornerback in the first round and take a running back and didn’t get around to taking a corner until the third round, recent history says the best case scenario is that they end up with a Steven Nelson caliber player. That’s the best case scenario.

On the other hand, if they were to take a corner early and wait until the third round for a running back, history says they could still end up with a player like Alvin Kamara or Kareem Hunt. Obviously, they could also end up with Terrance West or Tre Mason, too, but there aren’t more busts at running back than corner, but your upside in the third is MUCH higher.

Now let’s look at another offensive position that many want the Chiefs to address, the interior offensive line.

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