Could Mike Pennel turn out to be more expensive than expected?

Given the expected market prices for other run defenders, is it possible that Mike Pennel stands to make a bit more than we might expect.

When the Kansas City Chiefs signed defensive tackle Mike Pennel to a contract midway through the 2019 regular season, it barely registered on the NFL’s newswire and failed to turn any heads in Chiefs Kingdom—at least at the time of signing. Several weeks later, Pennel became a celebrated member of the Chiefs defensive turnaround, an unexpected anchor of a run defender who produced as a wonderful surprise along the defensive interior.

Pennel’s contract was a short-term deal, one that allowed him to re-enter free agency after a majority of a single season spent in K.C. The early word in the offseason is that both sides are interested in a reunion at this point, but so far nothing has come of it. At least as of press time, Pennel is still scheduled to hit the open market and the Chiefs might shop elsewhere.

Despite Pennel’s strong performance, I believe it’s fair to say that most people imagine him re-signing with the team on a potential veteran minimum contract. If the amount is higher than that, it won’t be much higher. Pennel is a well-traveled vet who will be 29-years-old this spring. He had a nice half-season in K.C., to be sure, he was also available at midseason for a reason.

Now on the open market, it will be interesting to see if Pennel is as cheap as most of us initially believed. After all Pennel now comes with championship experience and a revitalized resume as a run-stopping force. It wasn’t over a full season but Pennel looked good on the biggest stages offered by the NFL in 2019. That comes with a price tag.

In addition, look at run defender prices along the line. The Houston Chronicle recently reported that D.J Reader, defensive tackle for the Houston Texans, is set to hit between $11 to $13 million annually on the open market as a 26-year-old with multiple suitors. There’s no real pass rush threat here, but somehow Reader’s average market will be well into the double digit millions. Derrick Nnadi has to be licking his chops.

Meanwhile, other free agents like Michael Pierce, who had a single sack, is given a market value of $4.5 million over two years. Zach Kerr, who is a year older than Pennel, was given a $4 million market value. Danny Shelton was given a $4.7 million market average over three years.

Basically, Pennel’s strong showing of 24 tackles, 2 quarterback hits and 1 sack in 8 games could be enough to leap over the veteran minimum and at least make an ask not unlike Xavier Williams did with the Chiefs (two years, $5~ million). In fact that’s the exact deal (2/$5) that he signed with the Patriots last year before being let go before the season began.

Pennel will be cheap enough for the Chiefs to bring back, but it might not be the sort of veteran minimum deal for one year that some of us pictured. Pennel seized the opportunity in front of him to turn heads and now he’s going to be rewarded for it.