FanSided is partnering with The Action Network to bring you expert sports betting information and analysis.
The Super Bowl 54 odds are on the move. We’ll be updating this story all the way up until kickoff of 49ers-Chiefs with the latest moves, all of the big bets and quotes from sportsbook directors, detail which bet oddsmakers will need the most heading into the game.
Friday, Jan. 31
7:45 p.m. ET: The big bets are flying in at the Aria. Moments after we reported that a bettor put $220,000 on the Chiefs moneyline at -125, a different punter hit the 49ers…twice. The deep-pocketed player bet $300,000 on the 49ers moneyline and $220,000 on the Niners +1.5 points. The bets pay out $315,000 and $199,980, respectively.
7:15 p.m. ET: Another six-figure bet has come in. According to BetMGM head of PR Elisa Richardson, a bettor at Aria put $220,000 on the Chiefs to win at -125. If Kansas City wins this bet would net $176,000. It is the 10th bet of at least $100,000 that we’ve tracked for Super Bowl 54.
4:42 p.m. ET: Entering this afternoon, six of the nine $100,000+ bets we’ve tracked on the Super Bowl spread/moneyline have come in on the 49ers, but the Chiefs are starting to get a little love from the high-rollers down South.
BetMGM head of PR Elisa Richardson tells The Action Network that its Mississippi sportsbook in the Beau Rivage Casino just took a $435,250 wager on Chiefs -1.5. The bettor got -105 odds, meaning it would pay out $414,523.80 if K.C. covers on Super Sunday.
This is the fifth wager of more than $400,000 we’ve heard of so far. Two of those are on the 49ers, two are on the Chiefs and the final one is on Over 42.5, an alternate total.
3:24 p.m. ET: BetMGM reports that yet another six-figure wager has come in on the Super Bowl over/under. The bet, placed at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, is for $100,000 to win $90,909 on Under 54.5. Earlier today, CG Technology in Vegas took an identical bet on the Under.
After opening the total at 52.5, books have continued to raise it as bettors flocked to put money on the Over. But there’s been some clear interest from deep-pocketed Under bettors any time the total has approached the key number of 55.
2:30 p.m. ET: Just how popular of a bet are the Chiefs at DraftKings Sportsbook? DK took the second-biggest bet we’ve heard of all week ($684,000), and despite that bet being on the 49ers, DraftKings still reported that 72% of its spread handle is on the Chiefs, a notable split in a game of this magnitude.
1:24 p.m. ET: Another five-figure bet has rolled in. A bettor at the South Point bet $50,000 on the 49ers moneyline (+107). If the Niners win, the bettor will net $53,500.
10 a.m. ET: On Thursday, Chiefs RB Damien Williams’ rushing over/under prop at FanDuel was listed at 53.5 yards, a mark he’s only exceeded three times this season. One deep-pocketed bettor at FanDuel expects that to continue, so much so that he put $267,600 on Williams to rush for Under 53.5 at FanDuel’s Meadowlands Sportsbook in New Jersey.
The bet would profit $224,600 if the 49ers hold Williams in check.
This is by far the biggest prop bet we’ve heard of for Super Bowl 54. Unsurprisingly, FanDuel reacted by moving the line down to 50.5.
8 a.m. ET: Here comes the Under money. After nearly two weeks of everyone — and I mean everyone — hammering the Over into submission, CG Technology’s Tony DiTomasso tells The Action Network it got a $100,000 bet on Under 54.5, which would profit $90,909. It’s the biggest Under bet we’ve heard of so far. CG also took a $50,000 bet on Chiefs -1 from a different client, who would profit $45,000 if K.C. covers the number.
While the cumulative action on the spread and moneyline in Super Bowl 54 has been pretty evenly split, the over/under is a different story. William Hill reported that 85% of the money is on the Over 55 at its shops, which is extremely significant in a game with this amount of action. With 55 being a key number in NFL over/under betting, we should see more Under action hit the market from sharp bettors before gametime.
Thursday, Jan. 30
11:30 p.m. ET: The big bets keep rollin’ in as kickoff approaches. BetMGM told The Action Network that it had a bettor put $450,000 on an alternate over/under line at the MGM Grand in Vegas. This client took Over 42.5 in the game, and because this effectively moved the total 12 points (it’s currently 54.5), the wager came with steep odds (-450). That means this bettor would profit $100,000 if Over 42.5 hits.
This marks the fourth six- or seven-figure wager BetMGM has taken in the past 24 hours. Yesterday, we reported on the return of Mattress Mack, who put $1 million on the 49ers moneyline to win $1.2 million.
The Bellagio and Aria in Vegas also each took a $100,000 moneyline bet on the 49ers. The Bellagio wager would profit $110,000, while the Aria bet came with slightly worse odds and would net $105,000.
Wednesday, Jan. 29
9:20 p.m. ET: MATTRESS MACK ALERT!!
The Houston furniture store magnate just placed a $1 million bet on the San Francisco 49ers to win at +120 odds at the Mirage in Las Vegas. Mack would profit $1.2 million if San Fran pulls off the (slight) upset.
Mattress Mack, whose real name is Jim McIngvale, made waves this fall when he wagered more than $13 million on the Astros to win the 2019 World Series as a means of hedging a promotion running at his store.
While Mack has lost $2 million betting against the Chiefs recreationally this playoffs ($1 million on Texans moneyline, $1 million on Titans moneyline), McIngvale says this seven-figure bet is a hedge against a Super Bowl promotion at Gallery Furniture in Houston.
4:45 p.m. ET: According to Jeff Sherman at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, a client put down $91,666.65 to win $83,333.30 on the 49ers +1 on Wednesday afternoon. It’s one of the biggest bets we’ve heard of from the Westgate, which also took a $110,000 bet on Over 52.5 right after lines opened on Sunday, Jan. 19.
4 p.m. ET: William Hill just got, by our count, its second six-figure wager on the Super Bowl: A $100,000 bet on the 49ers to win the first half. It would pay out just north of $95,000 if San Fran goes to halftime with the lead.
Tuesday, Jan. 28
3:30 p.m. ET: Earlier this week we reported that MGM took a $150,000 bet on the Chiefs moneyline at -125. Well, you can add a couple more big Kansas City wagers to that. MGM told the Action Network they took a pair of six-figure bets, one for $550,000 and the other for $200,000 on Chiefs -1.
MGM reports that 68% of the spread tickets and 72% of the money has come in on the Chiefs while 70% of the tickets and 63% of the dollars have come in on the Over (54.5).
As far as the moneyline goes, 58% of the tickets at MGM are on the 49ers, while 57% of the cash is on the Chiefs.
Friday, Jan. 24
11:35 a.m. ET: The latest Super Bowl 54 odds at William Hill, the largest retail sportsbook in America, makes the Chiefs 1-point favorites against the 49ers, with the over/under at 54.5.
Like seemingly every other book in America, William Hill is seeing outsized public action hit the Over, with 95% of the money wagered banking on a high-scoring game.
The book reported taking another big bet: $40,000 to win $40,000 on the San Francisco moneyline. It’s the latest in a string of huge wagers that have hit 49ers across America. Earlier this week, we reported DraftKings taking separate wagers of $684,000 and $50,000 on San Fran.
William Hill‘s large wagers are split between the two teams so far:
- $100,000 to win $100,000 on 49ers moneyline
- $40,000 to win $40,000 on 49ers moneyline
- $33,000 to win $30,000 on Chiefs moneyline
- $30,000 to win $27,272 on Chiefs -1
- $28,000 to win $25,454 on Chiefs -1
- $25,000 to win $22,727 on Chiefs -1
The above rundown reflects what William Hill is seeing at-large: The majority of 49ers bettors are taking the moneyline at around even odds, as opposed to taking the +1.
William Hill reported 72% of the handle on the moneyline has come in on San Fran. For the spread, the opposite is true: Chiefs bettors are laying the 1 point instead of paying some extra juice just to bet KC to win. Sixty-nine percent of the money bet on the spread at William Hill is on the Chiefs.
Wednesday, Jan. 22
4:45 p.m. ET: The public betting support for the Super Bowl Over isn’t going anywhere. According to The Action Network’s data, an incredible 91% of the money is on the Over 54, which has caused the line to move up 2.5 points since opening at 51.5.
Earlier this week, we told you about a $110,000 bet at Westgate on the Over 52.5, and while DraftKings Sportsbook doesn’t have anything quite that large, the book’s cumulative handle on the total is dramatically split: 96% of the money wagered is on the Over, with just 4% on the Under.
DK also reported a $50,000 bet on Wednesday that came in on the 49ers moneyline at +108 odds, meaning this bettor would profit $54,000 if San Fran wins outright. The moneyline market at DraftKings is much more evenly split than the total: 55% of the money is on the 49ers to win, while 45% is on the Chiefs.
Tuesday, Jan. 21
5:15 p.m. ET: So far, the Super Bowl betting market is remarkably split. According to The Action Network’s data, 54% the money wagered on the spread are on the Chiefs, with 46% on the 49ers.
But DraftKings Sportsbook’s ledger specifically just got a bit skewed by one massive wager: One bettor put $684,000 on the 49ers +2, buying a half-point from +1.5. The bet would profit $601,920 if San Fran covers.
To date, this is the biggest bet we’ve heard of on the big game.
Monday, Jan. 20
9:30 p.m. ET: With a smaller spread (Chiefs -1.5 in most places), we figure to see a lot of moneyline bets over the next two weeks, as bettors forego dealing with the spread in favor of simply picking a team to win.
That’s what just happened at a BetMGM Sportsbook in Las Vegas, as a big-money bettor wagered $150,000 on the Chiefs to win. The bet would net $120,000.
8:20 p.m. ET: It took nearly 24 hours after opening the Super Bowl 54 odds for the South Point in Las Vegas to write a single ticket on the Under, according to bookmaker Chris Andrews. The first Under bet at South Point came after the book jacked the number up to 54. It was for just $200.
2 p.m. ET: The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas becomes one of the first sportsbooks in the country to move the 49ers-Chiefs over/under to 54. That’s up from an opener of 51.5.
The SuperBook took a $110,000 bet on Over 52.5 on Sunday night, and Jeff Sherman from Westgate tells The Action Network, “The ticket count is 30-to-1 on the Over early on. We’re going to see if we can attract some Under interest (by moving it to 54).”
10 a.m. ET: After the Super Bowl line settled a bit overnight, a $100,000 bet at FanDuel came in on the 49ers in New Jersey. It would profit $106,000.
Sunday Night, Jan. 19
11 p.m. ET: It only took an hour for another six-figure bet to hit the Super Bowl. William Hill was the target of another 49ers bettor. This one put $100,000 on San Fran’s moneyline at even odds, meaning it would profit $100,000 if the 49ers win outright.
9:50 p.m. ET: Both the 49ers and Chiefs scored 30-plus points on Sunday, so it was hardly a surprise to see a big bet come in right away on the total. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook took a $110,000 wager on Over 52.5. It would profit $100,000 if the two teams combine to score 53 or more.
9:31 p.m. ET: William Hill opened its spread on the lower end, choosing to make the Chiefs pick’em, while other books were as high as -1.5. One bettor took advantage of the advantageous price right away, betting $33,000 to win $30,000 on Kansas City at pick’em.