Betting odds and strategies for the NFL’s conference championships
By Byron Smith
With so few options for sports bettors, we analyze how to optimize your betting this weekend on the AFC and NFC Championship games.
Sports betting has grown quite a following over the last season and a half, garnering not just the attention of fans, but analyst and main stream outlets as well. Bleacher Report has its own sports betting branch (B/R Betting), Joe Burrow’s dad betting on his son was a national headline, and apps like Fanduel and Draft Kings are some of the highest-grossing apps during football season.
On a normal week of pro football, there are 12 and 16 games on which you can place wagers, giving sports bettors more variety and much higher chances of securing a profit. For the playoffs, there are fewer games every week, limiting those margins of error and forcing sports bettors to make the most optimal decision.
This weekend represents the slimmest margin of error with bettors only having two games on Sunday: the NFL’s conference championship games. In the AFC, the Tennessee Titans visit the Kansas City Chiefs while the Green Bay Packers head out to play the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC. Despite both games having pretty similar lines and spreads, the matchups are not very similar and have some clear standout secure bets.
(Disclaimer: This writer does not have ANY money on any of these scenarios. Bet at your own risk)
NFC Championship Game
The Spread: San Francisco 49ers – 7.5
The last time these two teams met, the game was not even close. The San Francisco 49ers dismantled everything the Green Bay Packers were in a 37-8 victory. Aaron Rodgers had 81 net passing yards (passing yards minus sack yards) and the Packers went 1 of 15 on third down.
This is the same matchup, in the same stadium, in the same time slot.
Sure, since this matchup in Week 12, the Packers are 6-0 while the 49ers are 4-2. Both teams have played extremely close games in that same time as well, but the Packers have played a much easier schedule over the last 7 weeks of football, with the New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, and Detroit Lions making up 4 of the last six wins. The Niners however have had to play the Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, L.A. Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Minnesota Vikings over the same span.
There are very few reasons to not pick the 49ers straight up here, but covering the spread is a much different beast. Their lack of playoff experience, their playing style, and the wide spread just do not help ensure a vote of confidence for a bettor.
The Packers have just as little playoff experience on the team overall, but they have it where it matters most. Aaron Rodgers has show his ability to perform in clutch situations as a former Super Bowl MVP. Jimmy Garoppolo‘s playoff experience consists of sitting behind Tom Brady while he and Bill Belichick led the team over any team in their path.
The wide spread stands as a legitimate concern, with the 49ers having won by more than 8 only one other time since the week 12 matchup with the Packers. This probably has to do with the 49ers run heavy offense that does help put games away early, but will struggle to score late and extend a lead.
The money line for the Packers currently sits at +285, per the Action Network, as of press time (meaning that a 100 dollar bet see a $285 profit, a $385 net), making the Packers a very appealing and safe enough bet for bettors looking to make a profit. The 49ers -335 money line makes any bets almost pointless, seeing just over 1.25 return on investment for a team that has struggled to cover the spread thus far this season.
This is a really hard one for sports bettors to wager on, with both sides having legitimate arguments for and against them.
On one hand, both offenses have been explosive at times this season, with the 49ers putting up 48 points on the Saints and the Packers putting up 42 points on the Raiders. The Packers have scored less then 23 points (about half of the total) 5 times this season, and the 49ers have done it 4 times. These offenses seem to score more then their half of this total on a regular basis.
On the other hand, both defenses have been a hard time for opponents to deal with. The Packers have held opponents under 23 points 10 times during the regular season, and the Niners did it 9 times.
This one seems really hard to call either way, meaning it is probably best to avoid placing any wagers. If a wager has to be placed here, keep it in perspective that things get cranked up a little during the playoffs, meaning that both defenses are going to be playing on a whole different level. The under seems like the best of the two choices.
AFC Championship Game
The Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5
The loss to the Tennessee Titans earlier this season changed the Kansas City Chiefs.
Since that loss, the Chiefs are unbeaten, thumping any team that crosses their path and building on that elite offense with an angry and dangerous defense. Tyrann Mathieu seems to have taken that loss personally, because since that loss, he has been the best defensive back in the league by a wide margin. Frank Clark has also come around since then, getting healthy and managing to silence all doubters left in Chiefs Kingdom.
That is not to say that the Titans have been completely passive in that time. Sure the Titans have lost two since then and are only on three-game winning streak, but in that time, a giant has awoken. His name has not left analyst mouths since he embarrassed the Texans backups in Week 17 and that name is Derrick Henry.
The matchup here is Henry vs. the Chiefs, with almost 80% of Tennessee’s scrimmage yards coming from Henry. Sadly for the Titans, the Chiefs have the formula to beating Henry, that being eliminating the possibility of establishing a run game.
By scoring early and quickly, the Chiefs can force the Titans to abandon the run game, putting the ball in the hands of Ryan Tannehill who is just decent, and keeping Henry from having a legitimate impact on the game. The Titans could hope to stop the Chiefs early, much like the Texans did, and get out ahead and let Henry run all over the defense for a victory, but that is banking on the Chiefs being unable to score, which is not a safe bet.
This is a little high, especially when one of the teams is a run heavy team that is going to try and take time off the clock as much as possible. But that does not mean the under is the smart choice.
The Chiefs offense should instantly encourage bettors to put money on the over, with weapons at every position. The number one quarterback in the league, the fastest receiver in the game, the best tight end playing today (step aside, George Kittle), a stout defensive front, and a running back who plays his best when it counts the most. This is the same offense that went off for 41 unanswered points last week and scored touchdowns on seven straight drives, despite being down 24 points at one point.
The Titans can easily put up two or three touchdowns this game, especially once garbage time hits, with emotions likely running high., meaning bettors are really only betting on whether or not the Chiefs offense can score 4 to 5 touchdowns. It’s a feat that the Chiefs have done several time this offense and multiple times in the playoffs over just the last two seasons.
Next. Picks and predictions for Titans-Chiefs. dark