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Five keys for Kansas City Chiefs to defeat the Houston Texans

By Lyle Graversen

KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 13: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against pressure from cornerback Lonnie Johnson #32 of the Houston Texans during the first quarter at Arrowhead Stadium on October 13, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 13: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against pressure from cornerback Lonnie Johnson #32 of the Houston Texans during the first quarter at Arrowhead Stadium on October 13, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images) /
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BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 10: Down markers are shown on the field during the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals game at M&T Bank Stadium on November 10, 2013 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 10: Down markers are shown on the field during the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals game at M&T Bank Stadium on November 10, 2013 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Win on third down

While you can definitely make an argument that winning on third down would qualify as something that every team in every NFL game needs to do, I think it is especially important for the Chiefs in this game. If you look at the season’s numbers, the Chiefs have a big advantage over the Texans on third downs and they need to exploit that in this game.

This season the Chiefs were the best team in the NFL at converting third downs on offense, converting 48% of their attempts. The Texans defense was 31st in the NFL at allowing third down conversions, also at 48%. That’s a massive advantage for Kansas City and they simply have to take advantage of it in this game if they want to win.

On the other side of the ball, the match up is much more even. The Chiefs defense was 12th best in the NFL at allowing third down conversions at 37% and the Texans offense was 8th best in the NFL, converting 44% of their third downs. Getting off the field on third down will be critical for K.C.’s defense in this game. This is another area where getting pressure on Watson will help the Chiefs. Sacks are drive killers. Also, getting stops on third down will prevent long drives where the Texans can milk the clock and rack up rushing yards. It really is vital for the defense to win on third down.

Third downs have also been an issue for the Texans in their other losses this season. In those four losses without Watson their average third down conversion percentage on offense was just 35.5%. If the Chiefs defense can keep their third down conversion percentage in the mid-to-upper 30s, I believe the Chiefs will win this game. On the other side of the ball the Texans allowed an average third down conversion percentage of 54.5% to opposing offenses in those four losses.

The team that consistently wins on third down in this game will put themselves in a great position to win. That may be true of all games, but the Chiefs should have a big advantage in this area based on their season averages.

Finally, the Chiefs need coach Reid to do something he has failed to do in several other games during his tenure in Kansas City.

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