Chiefs face energized Broncos team with Drew Lock at helm

Over the last three games, the Broncos offense is a mixed bag

While Drew Lock has undoubtedly shown promise, especially against the Texans, over the last three games, the Broncos offense in total has been somewhat of a mixed bag. On the positive side, they have improved from 30th in the league on third downs, at a 31 percent conversion rate, to 13th and are converting on 41 percent of their third down plays. In the last two games with Lock they’ve improved even more, converting on 52 percent of their third down plays.

They’ve also improved in points scored, albeit marginally, moving from 18.2 points per game to 21.2 points per game. Once again, with Lock at the helm they have improved even more averaging 31 points per game over the last two contests. However, that’s where most of the positivity ends.

In the last three games the Broncos have regressed considerably in total yards per game, falling from 27th on the season at 305 yards per game to 31st at 248 yards per game. Surprisingly, this is largely due to their struggles in the run game.

They’ve fallen from 18th on the season at 107 yards per game to 29th with only 86 yards per game. Their leading rusher Phillip Lindsay, an undrafted Pro Bowler only a year ago, has struggled in the last two games averaging only 3.3 yards per carry on 33 carries. With how physical the Chiefs have been against the run lately, his task doesn’t get any easier on Sunday.

One other interesting note, and one that will likely affect the scheme Spagnuolo incorporates into this week’s game plan, is that the Broncos are throwing the ball on nearly 60 percent of first down plays. There’s two reasons that’s ironic: the Broncos have two studs at running back and they have a rookie quarterback. Both those factors would make one assume they’d run more on first down than they’d pass. In surprising comparison, the Chiefs are throwing the ball on just over half of their first downs in the last three games.

While the Broncos offense has been a mixed bag as of late, their last two games with Lock show they aren’t to be overlooked. Spagnuolo will have his hands full going into Sunday with multiple challenges at the Broncos skill positions.

The Chiefs defense is beginning to thrive

The Chiefs defense is starting to make believers out of those in Chiefs Kingdom. At the beginning of the year the simple question for this team was “can this defense be just good enough”?  The goal was for the Chiefs defense to not restrict its offense from carrying the franchise and its fan base to its first Super Bowl berth and victory in five decades

At the beginning of the season, things looked rough. Teams absolutely gashed this defense in the run game time and again, and it resulted in close calls and damaging losses early in the season. With the offense also struggling, most pundits, both local and national, began to write the Chiefs off as serious Super Bowl contenders.

The last three games have penned a completely different story, with the defense not only being competent but quite good in several areas. Playing against some quality competition, the Chiefs have improved in several notable categories. Over the last three games they have only allowed 14 points per game, which is the fourth best mark in the league over that span.

The Chiefs have allowed scores on only 30 percent of opponents’ trips to the red zone, which is also good for fourth. This is a dramatic improvement on their season average of 52 percent. Maybe most impressive, given they’ve played teams with talented running games in the Chargers, Raiders, and Patriots, they have improved from 28th in the NFL and 138 rushing yards per game to 14th and 103 rushing yards per game. They are top 10 in opponents’ completion percentage and nearly top 10 in yards per pass attempt and sacks per game.

The national narrative around the Chiefs defense should begin to change. What most thought was a terrible unit for several seasons as well as the beginning of this season has now evolved into a unit the team can count on. In fact, and this should not be lost in all the headlines, this defense is arguably the reason the Chiefs have won multiple games this season including the Vikings, Chargers, and Patriots victories. That’s not something they could say last season, and it’s time they started getting the respect that they have earned.