Despite what the analysts want you to believe, the Kansas City Chiefs have exactly what it takes to beat the New England Patriots.
Despite being rare in modern sports, modern rivalries have been nothing short of fantastic in recent memory. Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz battling multiple times only for the last match to end after only three punches. Brady and Manning battling it out for AFC supremacy. LeBron and the Warriors battling year after year for the NBA title. The Blue Devils and the Tar Heels leading college basketball into the modern era.
But perhaps the newest sports rivalry maybe the most exciting.
The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots have laid the foundation for a long and exciting rivalry: multiple heartbreaking playoff games, high scoring regular season games, the best quaterback of the previous 100 NFL seasons and the best quaterback of the next 100 on opposing sides of the ball, two of the best head coaches in NFL history, and paths that are destined to cross over and over again for a long time.
With the next installment of the young rivalry less then 24 hours away, it is important to analyze the match up and determine how exactly the Chiefs could beat Brady and the Patriots. How can Andy Reid lead the offense over the supposed “number one defense in football”?
By analyzing the Patriots’ stats, in both their wins and losses, isolating what the Patriots do well and where they struggle, and finding how the Chiefs’ weapons can be used to capitalize in those areas, we can figure out a game plan for the Chiefs to avenge the AFC Championship loss.
Where the Patriots have Success
The Patriots success this season is built on their defense, and it all starts with the secondary.
Devin Mccourty leads the NFL in interceptions with 5, with Stephen Gilmore being tied for 2nd with 4 interceptions, paving the way for the Patriots league-leading 20 interceptions. Stephen Gilmore is tied for sixth in the league in passes defended with 13 and, according to PFF, has only allowed 34 receptions despite being targeted 70 times.
A great secondary opens up the door for coverage sacks along the line, where Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins lead the team with 6 sacks a piece (tied for 37th). Overall the Patriots’ defense has taken the quaterback down 40 times, which is tied for fourth in the league.
This defensive success has been a long time coming, building on the success of years passed. In the 2018 season, the Patriots used a Cover 0 blitz package 75 times, and according to PFF, allowed only a 42.9 completion percentage on those plays. This sets up the groundwork for the Patriots success in 2019.
The Patriots still effectively use the Cover 0 package, just look to the Jets game where they left Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts” and unable to put together any sort of success. This dangerous weapon allows the Patriots to confuse, outsmart, and overwhelm quaterbacks, forcing mistakes and capitalizing.
The Patriots’ success with the Cover 0 package has also helped them pre-snap. When a quaterback sees Cover 0, they should immediately be calling audibles, cancelling the tight ends route to gain an extra blocker, sending a wide receiver deep and bringing one receiver (or running back in the case of teams with good receiving backs) across the middle and into the flat on the side of the quarterbacks throwing hand. The Patriots have capitalized on this so far in 2019 by feigning Cover 0 just as often as they actually run it, and then backing off at the snap into a Cover 2 or Tampa 3 package.
With a team as effective as the Patriots have been at blitzing, it will take a team with speed, horizontal playmakers, and great offensive linemen, as well as a quarterback with the ability to make great reads to pick out the faux Cover 0 shows.