Chiefs vs. Raiders game preview: Joshua Jacobs is key for both teams
This is not a great matchup for Derek Carr
Derek Carr has had a very up-and-down career so far. After winning only three games his first year, he improved the next two seasons and eventually led the Raiders to 12 wins in 2016. Predictions of a potential MVP campaign in 2017 were bandied about all offseason but were quickly dashed as the team lost four of their first six games en route to a 6-9 record. Carr would personally regress even further his first year under Gruden and whispers of replacing him began to stir. It seems so far that Carr had other plans.
While he’s been inconsistent this season, he’s had some very productive stretches. He is completing an impressive 71 percent of his passes for 2,621 yards and 15 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. These numbers won’t win a quarterback the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, as some in Raider nation seem to believe, but they’re good enough when coupled with a productive running game. He’s even ranked seventh in quarterback DVOA through 11 weeks.
Unfortunately, things don’t look great going forward. Carr is one of the few long-time starters in the league who seems to consistently struggle as the season wanes into its final months. Some say it’s the weather, with Carr playing most of his football in warm weather, his struggles lie in adjusting to throwing the ball in colder temperatures. Some say it’s the coaching. Given the Raiders’ coaching history, it’s no wonder he’s struggled as the games become more important down the stretch.
Either way, the matchup on Sunday does not favor him historically. It’s expected to be in the 30s at Arrowhead on Sunday, and in four games played below 40 degrees Carr is 0-4, with a 51 percent completion percentage, 152 passing yards per game, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. That looks really bad, but not as bad as his quarterback rating of nine in those games.
What’s more, in his career against the Chiefs, Carr has only won two out of 11 contests and has never won a game at Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders have lost the last 5 games at Arrowhead Stadium by a combined 75 points. As if that weren’t bad enough, Carr’s winning percentage in December is 45 percent and is even worse in afternoon games at 40 percent. Needless to say, the odds are not in his favor.
We’d be foolish to assume that history can predict the future. We’ve seen teams overcome the odds numerous times before. That said, the Chiefs have had the Raiders number since Andy Reid came to town. If they don’t overlook this game, I’d be highly surprised to see the Raiders win.
Andy Reid after a bye week
Andy Reid is one of the most consistently successful coaches in the NFL. He has been for the last two decades. Wherever he goes, he wins in the regular season, he wins the division, and he wins in the playoffs. I’ve said it numerous times this year as the Chiefs have fallen on a bit of hard times, he’s taken far less talent to the Super Bowl. The chances he won’t win a Super Bowl with the best quarterback in the league are slim to none.
This point is belabored every season, but for good reason. One of the things that is usually an indicator of a good coach is how they perform after the bye week. Give a great coach an extra week to prepare for an opponent and you can usually bet that he will find some minor details overlooked by others to exploit. You can find it all over the sport, from college to the NFL. Great coaches thrive with extra time to prepare. How much has Reid thrived?
This is Reid’s 21st year as a head coach in the league and this will be his 21st game following a bye week on Sunday. In the 20 prior games Reid has won 17 and lost only 3. Of the two he’s lost in Kansas City, one was against the Peyton Manning-led Broncos, when they were still a juggernaut, and the other was the extremely weird game the Chiefs lost to the hapless Giants where neither team could score. I don’t see any of those scenarios playing out on Sunday, and Reids record should improve to 18-3.