Aaron Rodgers’ road vulnerability and other storylines from Packers vs. Chiefs

The pass rush should be able to generate pressure

If there’s one thing that the Chiefs have struggled to do this year, it’s to consistently generate pressure on the opponent’s quarterback. If that quarterback is mobile, you may as well forget it. They’re likely escaping the contest with few hits if any and there’s a good chance the Chiefs defense won’t record a sack.

This was mostly true against the Jaguars and Ravens and definitely true against the Colts and the Texans. In these contests the Chiefs only averaged one sack per contest. However, against less mobile quarterbacks the Chiefs have fared far better. Against the Raiders, Lions, and Broncos, the Chiefs tallied over 5.3 sacks per contest.

Some of you may be thinking: isn’t Rodgers a mobile quarterback? Yes, he definitely is more mobile than Joe Flacco. He’s probably comparably mobile at this point in his career to Derek Carr. He’ll run if he has to, but isn’t going to put his body in harms way otherwise.

In fact, assuming he plays in all 16 games this season, he’s on pace to have his lowest rushing total he’s ever had in a full season by 25 percent. He’s just not the mobile quarterback at 36 that he used to be, and the Chiefs should hopefully be able to take advantage of that.

My Prediction – Chiefs 24, Packers 27

I’m predicting that the Packers will steal this game at home against the Chiefs on Sunday night, but I don’t feel particularly confident in that prediction. A major factor here is Andy Reid versus Matt LaFleur. A seasoned and wily veteran versus a rookie head coach. An actual offensive play calling genius versus, well, someone who worked with Sean McVay for a while. Matt LaFleur looks like he might fit the part, but really, the jury is still out on whether or not he’s a great offensive mind.

Another major factor is the quarterback battle. One of the most talented and seasoned in the game, who also boasts a very talented arsenal of weapons, will be playing against a man who didn’t play professional football in 2018. No disrespect to Matt Moore, he’s had a respectable career in his own right, but he’s no Aaron Rodgers and he’s certainly no Patrick Mahomes. This edge goes decisively to Aaron Rodgers.

I think whoever wins, it will be largely because of the defense. This is why I’m not super confident in predicting the Packers will win. The Packers have had some good stretches on defense, but there are some serious flaws to their unit. Don’t forget, they just gave up a huge game to a tight end and the Chiefs just so happen to have the best in the game.

On the other hand, the Chiefs defense wasn’t effective the whole season until last Thursday. However, if they play anywhere close to the way they did against Denver I’m very confident Reid can scheme enough points on the board to beat Green Bay.

So there you have it, those are some of the biggest factors of this game. The Packers should win, because they’re a Super Bowl contender and we don’t have Mahomes. If we did, I’d pick the Chiefs all day. That said, there’s definitely a possibility the Chiefs can pull this one off. Either way, I’m excited for Sunday Night Football.