Tyreek Hill could have major fantasy football impact vs. Texans in Week 6

Tyreek Hill is a potential play for the Kansas City Chiefs against the Houston Texans, which means big things for fantasy football players.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ defense is facing significant questions after the team’s first loss of the season to the Indianapolis Colts, and most fans were hoping for signs of life at this point.

Last year through the first five games, the Chiefs’ defense allowed 343 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. This year, the defense is allowing 237.2 passing yards. Which seems like a much more noticeable improvement, but taking the rushing game vs. the defense into account evens things out. Last year, they allowed 118.8 rushing yards per game through the first five games, compared to this season’s 155.8 rush yards allowed per game. This makes it fairly safe to assume that the Texans‘ ground game will see a heavy workload against the Chiefs on Sunday.

For the sake of the integrity of this article, all daily fantasy sports scores, salary, and outlooks will be provided using the Draft Kings platform. Regular fantasy outlooks will be provided using a PPR (point-per-reception) scoring system.

Perfect Lineup, Week 5 ($50,000 max cap hit; 372.7 total FP)

• Matt Ryan $5,900 (35.9 FP)
• Christian McCaffrey $8,700 (50.7 FP)
• Aaron Jones $5,900 (52.2 FP)
• Amari Cooper $6,800 (42.6 FP)
• Michael Thomas $6,600 (44.2 FP)
• DJ Chark Jr. $5,000 (39.4 FP)
• Darren Fells $2,900 (16 FP)
• Will Fuller V $4,500 (56.7 FP)
• Eagles $3,700 (35 FP)

Last week, the perfect lineup scored a whopping 372.7 fantasy points. That’s the highest it’s been since Week 1, which scored 340.16 fantasy points. It is unique in that three different players scored 50 fantasy points or more. There hasn’t been a single player scoring above 50 fantasy points at all this season, prior to Week 5.

Quarterbacks

Both quarterbacks heading into this game command high-flying offenses and there’s potential for a shootout that could see tremendous fantasy impacts for both teams. For the Texans, Deshaun Watson is averaging 26.4 fantasy points this season and has been reasonably priced at sub-$7,000 throughout the season so far. According to LineStar, Watson should have a reasonably favorable matchup against the 23rd-ranked passing defense of the Chiefs. Projected to score 24 fantasy points, Watson might have his hands full if the Chiefs continue to put an emphasis on slowing down the passing game.

Chiefs D vs. Opp. QB (Last 4)

• Pass Yards/G: 226.8
• Pass TDs/G: 1.0
• Attempts/G: 36.0
• Completions/G: 21.0
• Completion %: 58.3
• Rushes/G: 4.5
• Rush Yards/G: 22.8
• FPPG Allowed: 17.3

These stats are not exactly appealing when choosing a quarterback against Kansas City, but Watson is one of the only quality starters that the Chiefs will have faced this season. Watson’s stats on the season include an average of 272.8 passing yards, 2.2 touchdowns/game, and 24.4 rushing yards per game. With that said, Watson still remains one of the top quarterbacks for the 10-game main slate this week. If salary cap allows it, he should definitely be a top choice in lineups.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had a decent statistical game despite taking the loss last Sunday night. Mahomes scored 22 fantasy points, which is a low in comparison to his usual. However, that’s actually average or right above it for most starting quarterbacks this season. Houston’s passing defense has been anything but successful through the last four weeks with far worse numbers than the Chiefs’.

• Pass Yards/G: 273.3
• Pass TDs/G: 1.5
• Attempts/G: 39.8
• Completions/G: 27.5
• Completion%: 69.2
• Rushes/G: 2.8
• Rush Yards/G: 18.0
• FPPG Allowed: 20.7

Aside from the rushes allowed per game, the Texans’ defense has been rather lackluster. LineStar’s projection of 30 fantasy points for Mahomes this week is actually very accurate considering the performance of the pass defense for Houston this season. As such, however, DraftKings has increased Mahomes’ price from $7,100 to $7,500 this week, taking note of the possible stone cold performance. Mahomes is a must-start if salary cap does not get in the way, but if it remains an issue, top quarterback options include Atlanta Falcons‘ Matt Ryan, Dallas Cowboys‘ Dak Prescott, and Jacksonville Jaguars‘ Gardner Minshew.

Running Backs

The major difference between both team’s running back corps: the opposition. Kansas City’s run defense has been downright atrocious. There’s no beating around the bush and trying to put an angle on it. To make matters worse, the Chiefs are down two of their top interior lineman, Chris Jones and Xavier Williams. This means that the team will have to rely on defensive tackles Derrick Nnadi, Terrell McClain and Khalen Saunders to plug up the middle.

Chiefs D vs. RB (Last 4)

• Rush Yards/G: 148.8
• Attempts/G: 28.0
• Receptions/G: 5.5
• Rec Yards/G: 46.3
• TDs/G: 0.8
• FPPG Allowed: 31.5

The only advantage they have here is the Texans do not have a clear-cut starting running back, who will have to rely primarily on Carlos Hyde. Hyde could end up scoring around 15 fantasy points, although LineStar has his projection at 9. Duke Johnson should be avoided. Although he is priced at an enticing $4,100, his fantasy output will more than likely be minimal.

As for the Chiefs, the running backs will have their hands full. The Texans’ rush defense has been quite decent, having allowed an average of 0.3 touchdowns to running backs per game through the last four weeks. With LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams both looking like starters, it’s difficult to determine who will have the biggest fantasy impact. Williams is projected to score 12 points compared to McCoy’s projected 9 points according to LineStar. It would probably be best to avoid Chiefs running backs altogether for this game.

Texans D vs. RB (Last 4)

• Rush Yards/G: 62.5
• Attempts/G: 18.3
• Receptions/G: 9.0
• Rec Yards/G: 65.0
• TDs/G: 0.3
• FPPG Allowed: 24.8

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Kansas City’s defense vs. opposing wide receivers has actually been stout, statistically speaking . Unfortunately for them, however, DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t care about the opposition’s numbers. Hopkins has averaged just 59 receiving yards through the last four weeks, and has 0 touchdowns in that stretch as well. Despite those displeasing numbers, Hopkins has solidified his position as a top receiver and could have a breakout game at any point and go on a red-hot streak for the rest of the season. If the Chiefs want any chance of winning this one, they’ll have to keep Hopkins under wraps.

They’ll also have to take Kenny Stills and Will Fuller into consideration, both of whom are decent receivers in their own right. It will be a task for the Chiefs to cover such talent at wide receiver, but it is doable, especially if the Texans put an emphasis on the ground game like most teams have done against Kansas City.

Chiefs D vs. WR (Last 4)

• Rec Yards/G: 112.5
• Receptions/G: 8.3
• TDs/G: 0.8
• FPPG Allowed: 24.3

The Chiefs’ wide receivers, headlined by Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, should have a high volume of targets and see favorable action against the Texans. The Texans’ pass defense has been absolutely terrible against opposing wide receivers. In fact, they are allowing over 40 fantasy points to wide receivers alone per game through the last four weeks. Speedsters Hill and Hardman should get decent action, as both are projected to score 16 and 13 fantasy points, respectively.

What’s interesting though, is both Hill and Hardman are actually priced fairly decently. Hardman is priced at $5,300, and Hill is $6,900. Hill’s number may be a little high, but his lack of playing time this season could possibly lead to his low ownership. If salary cap doesn’t get in the way, Hill is a top option. Hardman is a top option as well, but should be a 4th- or 5th-consideration.

Texans D vs. WR (Last 4)

• Rec Yards/G: 179.3
• Receptions/G: 14.5
• TDs/G: 1.3
• FPPG Allowed: 40.8

The tight ends for this game are facing a matchup similar to the running backs. Kansas City’s defense against opposing tight ends has been atrocious, whereas the Texans’ defense against the same position has been superb. The Texans’ defense will have their hands full with Travis Kelce, though, who is always a top option at tight end for fantasy. This week is no different, as Kelce should be a top consideration at $7,000.

Texans D vs. TE (Last 4)

• Yards/G: 29.0
• Receptions/G: 4.0
• TDs/G: 0.0
• FPPG Allowed: 7.4

As for Houston’s tight ends, both Darren Fells and Jordan Akins have rather favorable matchups. As stated above, the Chiefs’ defense against tight ends has been in favor of the opposition. Fells and Akins are priced at $3,100 and $3,200 respectively, but should be able to put up rather decent numbers against a struggling defense for the Chiefs. Nothing is guaranteed in the world of fantasy, however, so take caution when putting one of these players into lineups.

Chiefs D vs. TE (Last 4)

• Yards/G: 68.0
• Receptions/G: 7.3
• TDs/G: 0.3
• FPPG Allowed: 15.6

Defense

Avoid the defenses in this game if at all possible. Both the Chiefs’ defense and the Texans’ defense are priced fairly low at $2,500 and $2,100 respectively, but for good reason. Both teams have suffered defensively, and have excelled offensively which makes it even tougher.

KC vs. Defenses (Last 4)

• Int/G: 0.0
• Fumb/G: 1.3
• Pts Scored/G: 25.5
• TDs/G: 3.0
• Pass Yds/G: 363.3
• Rush Yds/G: 82.5
• Offense FPPG: 122.9
• Opposing DST FPPG: 4.5

HOU vs. Defenses (Last 4)

• Int/G: 0.3
• Fumb/G: 0.5
• Pts Scored/G: 24.3
• TDs/G: 3.0
• Pass Yds/G: 274.0
• Rush Yds/G: 116.8
• Offense FPPG: 106.8

Strategies

These strategies are opinionated and there are quite possibly better strategies out there; this just gives players a reference point of what they could do when drafting their teams.

One strategy to use is a top-heavy, bottomed out roster. What this means, is paying up for positions such as quarterback ($6,800-$7,600), running back (RB1, $7,500-$9,100), and wide receiver (WR1, $7,000-$7,800). With such top-heavy positions, it would be a necessity to fill out the roster with very low-priced sleepers. It is quite possible that a roster like this could absolutely churn out points, but there is just too great of a risk factor involved.

One of the best strategies to use is an evenly-split roster. Paying up for positions such as quarterback, running back, and wide receiver is fine, but give a limit to how much salary cap is spent per position. Even it out so that no one position holds a great advantage over the other.

With the salary cap left over, slowly start to swap out a bit higher-priced players until it’s evenly split among the starting positions (WR1, RB1, QB, TE). Using a combination of low-priced, high-value players with mid-priced, mid-to-high valued players is the key to a great lineup.

As is the case with every fantasy sport, there is no 100% accurate prediction to how players will perform, thus it is a gamble and should be seen as such.