Patrick Mahomes could be veteran quarterback of the AFC West in 2020

As many as three teams could be up for major changes at the game’s most important position only six months from now in the AFC West.

For now the discussion around Patrick Mahomes is always centered on his youth, about the number of records he’s set in such a short amount of time in the National Football League. Starting next spring, he might be the savvy veteran in his own division.

A quick look at the rest of the AFC West shows an interesting scenario at the game’s most important position: quarterback. Namely, it’s entirely possible that every one of the Chiefs division rivals rolls out a new, untested starting quarterback in 2020, depending on how the rest of this season goes.

If so, it would make Mahomes not only the most talented of all but the most experienced as well.

Denver Broncos

Consider this scenario the most likely of the three. In fact, the “untested” quarterback might already be in place.

The Broncos drafted Drew Lock out of Missouri in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft with a plan to likely keep him on the bench for as long as it made sense behind veteran import Joe Flacco. The Broncos made a decent investment into both in a scenario that seemed to offer hope for both the short-term and the long-term prognosis for the team.

For the present, Flacco was supposed to be a step up from the Case Keenums of the world, a longtime starter with a chip on his shoulder to prove he still had something left. He’s also won a Super Bowl himself and could potentially team up with the remnants of the Broncos recent Super Bowl years to bring the team back to contention.

For the future, Lock offered a strong-armed passer with the right skill set to succeed if he can reign in the mistakes, learn the mental side at the highest level, and grow with a year (or less) of tutelage behind Flacco.

Instead, the entire plan fell apart. Lock suffered a preseason thumb injury that landed him on injured reserve, giving him no real physical experience this offseason in mop-up duty behind Flacco. Speaking of the vet, Flacco now looks like just another mediocre QB acquisition for John Elway, who seems to have no eye for talent at the very position he played.

If the Broncos tank the rest of their season, which at this point with Bradley Chubb also hitting IR, they certainly should, they will get another high draft pick in a QB-heavy draft class. That could mean grabbing a player with a higher ceiling and greater readiness than Lock. The Broncos would then have a real competition among two young players hungry to succeed at the pro level in 2020.

Likelihood of a starting rookie QB in 2020: 90 percent.

Oakland Raiders

This one is a bit more of a toss-up than the Broncos, but the potential feels greater than the Chargers (more to come). However, the Raiders need the wheels to come off just a bit more than they have already to likely justify such a move.

Remember this: Derek Carr was not Jon Gruden’s choice at quarterback. He’s an inherited flavor. For a head coach who has already hit the reset button on every other part of this roster, he might be good and ready to get “his guy” under center (and given a draft class where as many as six quarterbacks could be taken, Gruden would be able to find one).

A few years ago, the idea of moving on from Carr would have sounded ridiculous, but the Raiders have experienced one great year with Carr at the helm and a whole lot of basement dwelling around it. In fact, if the Raiders could just reach mediocrity, Carr would likely be safe in his position. However, the Raiders might be more willing to turn the page now with another year in the assumed doldrums.

So far this season, the Raiders are 2-2 with an impressive showing last week against the Indianapolis Colts. If the Raiders miss the postseason, however, Gruden might be keen to turn the corner. There were whispers that the Raiders might just draft a QB in this year’s draft so the idea of replacing Carr has been mentioned before. With another average year, it’s even more evidence for the Raiders to just move forward.

Likelihood of a starting rookie QB in 2020: 50 percent.

Los Angeles Chargers

This one is the biggest stretch, but the rumors of rebuilding would accelerate plenty if the Chargers cannot get their season turned around.

The Bolts have suffered a number of key injuries which led to them losing a couple games early. They beat up on the hapless Miami Dolphins last Sunday which made everyone feel good for a hot minute, like after eating a big sugar-y dessert. However, the Chargers should have lost to the Colts (if not for Adam Vinatieri’s kicking woes) in Week 1, which would mean a real record of 1-3 through four weeks. The schedule also remains tough for the Chargers, which means things could get unexpectedly ugly.

If the Chargers end up as this year’s surprise losers, then it will be time for the team to look inward at how they turn things around. Given that Philip Rivers’ arm strength is fading and that he’s already into his late thirties, it would make sense for L.A.’s brass to consider finding his replacement in a loaded draft.

Even if the plan was to keep Rivers under center for another year, struggles or not, it would not surprise anyone if the Chargers finally went for it in the first round to find his replacement.

Likelihood of a starting rookie QB in 2020: 10 percent.