Ravens vs. Chiefs fantasy football preview: Pay up for Travis Kelce

The Baltimore Ravens head to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Kansas City Chiefs in what could possibly be a high-firing matchup, what sort of fantasy impact can we expect?

Week 2 of the new season is over, which means it is time to move on to Week 3 in fantasy football.

Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens have outscored opponents by an average of 16 points and 27.5 points, respectively. Although it may appear like the Ravens’ defense will give quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs a run for their money, that may not be the case. Let’s take a deep dive into the fantasy impact each position will have as we anxiously await Week 3.

For the sake of the integrity of this article, all daily fantasy sports scores, salary, and outlooks will be provided using the Draft Kings platform. Regular fantasy outlooks will be provided using a PPR (point-per-reception) scoring system.

Perfect Lineup: Week 2

• QB Patrick Mahomes ($7500) 35.6 FP
• RB Dalvin Cook ($7200) 31.1 FP
• RB Aaron Jones ($5400) 28 FP
• WR Kenny Golladay ($6600) 28.7 FP
• WR Emmanuel Sanders ($4700) 28.8 FP
• WR Demarcus Robinson ($3500) 38.2 FP
• TE Travis Kelce ($7300) 26.7 FP
• FLEX Mark Andrews ($3800) 28.2 FP
• DST New England Patriots ($3700) 37 FP

Week 2’s perfect lineup featured three different Chiefs players, all of whom had a big game at their respective positions. In nearly direct contrast to Week 1’s perfect lineup, Week 2’s featured three high-value players (>$7000), meaning fantasy impact can come from near any player. In our Week 2 article, the total fantasy point output was 149.32, which isn’t necessarily an eye-grabbing amount. However, as fantasy standouts and sleepers start to take form, their fantasy impacts should slowly start to blossom.

Quarterback

Both of the quarterbacks in this game are coming off of back-to-back great outings. With an average of 35.5 fantasy points over the last two games, Lamar Jackson is projected to have yet another heavy fantasy impact as the Ravens take on the Chiefs. This may not be the case, however. In its last two games, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing 274 passing yards and 18 points per game, which seems like numbers fantasy players should be wary of.

However, taking into account that the defense found its legs in Week 2, it allowed just 198 passing yards against the Oakland Raiders. The defense also notched 2 interceptions and 3 sacks, giving the opposing quarterback a tough time. It would be downright biased to assume Jackson is not going to have a decent game.

According to LineStar, Jackson is projected to have 24.10 fantasy points. When playing at home, the Chiefs allow 44% less fantasy points to quarterbacks, although this statistic has been graded over the last 9 games. It is important to note that the defense of 2019 is much different in comparison to last year’s defense.

Priced at $7,000, Jackson’s fantasy output may break 22-24 fantasy points, however the Chiefs are allowing just 18.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With options such as Tom Brady (vs. NYJ), Dak Prescott (vs. MIA), and Josh Allen (vs. CIN), Jackson may be a bit overpriced. For regular fantasy leagues, Jackson is an obvious must-start. As is the case with Patrick Mahomes, the price tag makes both of the quarterbacks a little bit of a price-grab. There are cheaper options, as listed above, that could potentially give the same relative fantasy value.

Mahomes should have a decent game against the Ravens, who is only allowing 14.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Ravens’ defensive statistics could cause fantasy football fans to be a bit cautious when choosing their quarterback. Mahomes’ projected 9.82% ownership could give those who choose to draft him the upper hand if he is low-owned and has a big game.

BAL vs. QB (Last 2)

• 269.5 Pass YPG
• 0.5 Pass TD/G
• 36.0 Attempts/G
• 20.0 Completions/G
• 55.6% Completion Ratio
• 14.9 FPPG

KC vs. QB (Last 2)

• 274.0 Pass YPG
• 2.0 Pass TD/G
• 35.5 Attempts/G
• 25.0 Completions/G
• 70.4% Completion Ratio
• 18.7 FPPG

Running Back

The running back position is one that is currently up in smoke for the Chiefs. With Damien Williams not practicing and likely out against the Ravens, the team must turn to LeSean McCoy to be its feature back against Baltimore. His status is unknown, too, however. He is practicing on Thursday, though, and should hopefully be good to go. Over his last two games, McCoy has scored 7.8 fantasy points per game, and has been a decent low-priced flex option. However, the Ravens’ defense against opposing running backs this season has been stout.

Even if the last two games have been “easy” for the Ravens, one cannot downplay the level at which the team’s defense has played. Allowing just 14.0 rush yards to running backs per game, it is definitely a major risk to start any of Kansas City’s running backs. It is important to note that the Chiefs’ run defense has been stout as well, and if expert analysis is any indication, Sunday’s game could be an air raid and onslaught of quarterback performance.

Mark Ingram is priced at just $5,700, and could have a decent game given his value (projected $361 per fantasy point). While a cheap option, there are still players who have much more favorable matchups at or around Ingram’s asking price. Wide receivers and tight ends should be the fantasy focus for this game.

BAL vs. RB (Last 2)

• 14.0 Rush YPG
• 9.0 Attempts/G
• 3.0 Receptions/G
• 21.5 Receiving YPG
• 0.5 TDs/G
• 9.6 FPPG

KC vs. RB (Last 2)

• 92 Rush YPG
• 15.5 Attempts/G
• 4.0 Receptions/G
• 28.0 Receiving YPG
• 0.0 TDs/G
• 15.5 FPPG

Wide Receiver

The wide receiver position should see plenty of action as standouts such as Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown take the field on Sunday. Matched up against Charvarius Ward, who is ranked 92nd among cornerbacks, Brown should have a fairly decent game. In his last two games, Brown has an average of 25.5 fantasy points per game. Kansas City is allowing 173.5 passing yards per game to wide receivers, which is an indication of how poorly the Chiefs’ secondary has performed over the last two games. At just $5900, Brown is a cheap and very viable option and should definitely be a consideration for fantasy lineups. For regular fantasy leagues, he is a must-start.

Watkins and Mecole Hardman will be the top two receivers for Sunday’s game, but that also means they will have to face some of Baltimore’s best in Brandon Carr (50th), and Anthony Averett (15th). This means that Mahomes’ favorite target, Travis Kelce, should have yet another great fantasy impact. Do not take the bait of the Ravens’ last two games. Much easier opponents have raised the Ravens’ stock much higher than it might actually be.

Low-priced wide receivers such as Demarcus Robinson ($5200) and Myles Boykin ($3000) always have a chance to explode, as seen in Week 2 against the Raiders for Robinson, but it all depends on the draft strategy DFS players choose to use. More detailed information on types of strategies players can use will be at the end of this article.

BAL vs. WR (Last 2)

• 219 Receiving YPG
• 15.0 Receptions/G
• 0.5 TD/G
• 43.5 FPPG

KC vs. WR (Last 2)

• 173.5 Receiving YPG
• 12.5 Receptions/G
• 2.0 TD/G
• 43.5 FPPG

Tight End

Last but certainly not least, we’ve come to the tight end position. Both team’s starting tight ends have made outstanding fantasy impacts over the last two weeks, as Baltimore’s Mark Andrews has scored 28 fantasy points per game. With another favorable matchup against the Chiefs’ Tyrann Mathieu, Andrews is poised for yet another good game and should easily see around 13-15 fantasy points. The Chiefs are allowing 72.5 passing yards to opposing tight ends.

On the other side of the field, Travis Kelce should make a major fantasy impact as explained above. Kansas City’s top receivers should have a rather less-than-favorable matchup, leaving the door wide open for Kelce to have a big game. With 19.3 fantasy points per game, Kelce will likely be Mahomes’ top target heading into Week 3 as the team continues to play without star wideout Tyreek Hill. Baltimore’s defensive statistics against tight ends are a bit alarming, but Kelce should have no problem getting himself open and delivering a big game.

Both of the team’s starting tight ends should have a great game, and starting Kelce at TE1, Andrews at flex could quite possibly be a hit. Avoid the likes of Hayden Hurst and Blake Bell; even though they are relatively low in price, their fantasy impact is low and should see maybe 3-7 points, with 7 being a stretch.

BAL vs. TE (Last 2)

• 29.0 YPG
• 2 Receptions/G
• 0 TD/G
• 4.9 FPPG

KC vs. TE (Last 2)

• 72.5 YPG
• 8.5 Receptions/G
• 0 TD/G
• 15.8 FPPG

Overall, Sunday’s game should have a heavy focus on the passing game, with both starting tight ends shining on the field. Wide receivers may be a bit of a gamble, but in regular fantasy leagues, players like Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman are all ones players should start; especially if they are thin at the position. Avoid running backs for this game if possible. However, LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram will both be cheap enough to fit them in rosters if salary cap limitations prevent any high-priced options.

An example of a Draft Kings lineup consisting of only players from the Ravens vs. Chiefs game:

• QB Patrick Mahomes ($7600)
• RB LeSean McCoy ($5000)
• RB Mark Ingram ($5700)
• WR Marquise Brown ($5900)
• WR Mecole Hardman ($5000)
• WR Miles Boykin ($3000)
• TE Travis Kelce ($7100)
• FLEX Mark Andrews ($4600)
• DST Chiefs ($2500)

An example lineup consisting of players from the entire main slate:

• QB Dak Prescott ($6500)
• RB Christian McCaffrey ($8700)
• RB Phillip Lindsay ($4300)
• WR Julio Jones ($7300)
• WR Mohamed Sanu ($3900)
• WR Emmanuel Sanders ($4800)
• TE Travis Kelce ($7100)
• FLEX Evan Engram ($5200)
• DST Saints ($2200)

As promised above, let’s go through different strategies to use for daily fantasy sports. These strategies are opinionated and there are quite possibly better strategies out there; this just gives players a reference point of what they could do when drafting their teams.

One strategy to use is a top-heavy, bottomed out roster. What this means, is paying up for positions such as quarterback ($6800-$7600), running back (RB1, $7500-$9100), and wide receiver (WR1, $7000-$7800). With such top-heavy positions, it would be a necessity to fill out the roster with very low-priced sleepers. It is quite possible that a roster like this could absolutely churn out points, but there is just too great of a risk factor involved.

One of the best strategies to use is an evenly-split roster. Paying up for positions such as quarterback, running back, and wide receiver is fine, but give a limit to how much salary cap is spent per position. Even it out so that no one position holds a great advantage over the other.

With the salary cap left over, slowly start to swap out a bit higher-priced players until it’s evenly split among the starting positions (WR1, RB1, QB, TE). Using a combination of low-priced, high-value players with mid-priced, mid-to-high valued players is the key to a great lineup.

As is the case with every fantasy sport, there is no 100% accurate prediction to how players will perform, thus it is a gamble and should be seen as such.