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Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and his (in)evitable regression

By Jalon Dodson

KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 9: Head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs talks to quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 during a timeout in the second quarter of the game against the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium on December 9, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 9: Head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs talks to quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 during a timeout in the second quarter of the game against the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium on December 9, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images) /
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GREEN BAY, WI – OCTOBER 29: Quarterback Brett Favre #4 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates after the Packers scored their third touchdown in the first half against the Arizona Cardinals on October 29, 2006 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
GREEN BAY, WI – OCTOBER 29: Quarterback Brett Favre #4 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates after the Packers scored their third touchdown in the first half against the Arizona Cardinals on October 29, 2006 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images) /

How did quarterbacks in their second year under coach Andy Reid perform in years past? is regression imminent for Patrick Mahomes?

History repeats itself. The cyclical nature of it all has been a cliche for some time—because it is true.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had one of the best seasons in 2018 for any quarterback, ever. Given that his season was such a historical outlier, he must be due for regression, right? That seems to be the cycle with quarterbacks: that a great year usually precedes a season of regression. With Mahomes, however, that may not be the case.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has had some amazing quarterbacks play for him, starting when he was a quarterbacks coach all the way through coaching Alex Smith these last few years. How did they perform in their second season with Andy Reid following their first season?

Brett Favre

The first quarterback to play for Andy Reid was Hall of Famer and Green Bay Packers great Brett Favre. In his first season with Reid, which was in 1997 when the latter was the quarterback coach, Favre had an impressive stat line – one of the best of his career. He was named first-team All Pro, and enjoyed a trip to the Pro Bowl.

1997 (1st year with Andy Reid)

304/513 completions/attempts, 3867 yards, 59.3% completion rate, 35 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

While his numbers are not something to flaunt over on today’s NFL, they were rather impressive (and compared to some active quarterbacks, the numbers still are impressive).  It is safe to say that Favre had a good first season with Reid as his QB coach, but how did he perform in the following year after that successful All-Pro caliber season? Did he experience major regression?

1998 (second and final year with Andy Reid)

347/551 completions/attempts, 4212 yards, 63% completion rate, 31 touchdowns, 23 interceptions

It appears that, aside from the touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio, Favre actually had a better season statistically than in his first season with Reid. This was Favre’s eighth season, so he was already an established quarterback, but according to most, the slump follows any season of excellence.

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