Five bold predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019
Contributing writer Jordan Mannix looks boldly ahead and sees bigger things coming for the defense, Damien Williams and more. Here are his 5 bold predictions for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have had a whirlwind of an offseason. For the first time in recent memory, there has been an extreme amount of turnover for a franchise that had mostly become known for its consistent success. I guess that’s what happens when you’ve fully realized you have a generational talent at quarterback. You move fast and break things.
With team activities having already begun, the media and NFL fan bases are beginning to turn from reflecting on the 2018 season to speculating on the 2019 season. For the first time in many years, the Chiefs seem to be a favorite topic. Now, there are some negative reasons for this, but it’s mostly because the team came within a few inches of a Super Bowl berth last season.
With this new season comes the greatest expectations for this franchise in quite some time. Here are my five bold predictions for the Chiefs during the 2019 season.
Another League-Leading Offense
The Chiefs’ offense in 2018 wasn’t just great, it was historically great. According to Football Outsiders, the creators and curators of advanced statistics like DVOA, the Chiefs ranked in the top five all time in offensive DVOA. In fact, they were mere tenths of percentage points away from the top four all time. Simply put, the offense was one of the most deadly in the history of the league last season.
The present sentiment says a team can’t sustain historical greatness two seasons in a row. However, there’s actually some pretty significant precedent for an offense to maintain a historically great stretch over a two-year period. It just so happens that precedent resides in none other than Kansas City.
Maybe some fans will remember, maybe some won’t, but the 2002 Chiefs’ offense was also deadly. They ranked number one in the league in total offense, number four in yards per game, and averaged over 29 points per game. If it weren’t for a complete dud in the final game of the season, where they scored zero points against the Oakland Raiders, the average would have been even higher. Ultimately, this offense ranked third since 1986 in Football Outsiders top 12 with an offensive DVOA of 35.4 percent.
What’s impressive is, while their DVOA for the 2003 season went down slightly to 33.4 percent and ranked number eight since 1986 in Football Outsiders top 12, their average points per game actually increased to an average of 30.3. What’s more, while maintaining the number one spot in total offense their yards per game ranking improved to second best in the league. So, while it’s hard to argue they definitely got better, all things considered this Chiefs’ offense was able to maintain a historical level of greatness over a two-year period. Now, why can we expect to see that with this iteration of the Chiefs’ offense?
There are four reasons to be optimistic that the Chiefs’ offense could actually maintain and even better their historical performance in 2019. The first is the offensive line. The Chiefs experienced a lot of inconsistency in their offensive line during the 2018 season. Both their starting center and starting right guard missed significant time due to injury. In total, seven interior lineman surpassed 100 snaps during the season. That’s not exactly a recipe for success.
Ironically, the offensive line for the Chiefs in 2018 was pretty decent. According to Pro Football Focus, they came in at number 13 overall. If they can simply have a healthier year in 2019, which isn’t a given but is a distinct possibility, with Mahomes in his second year commanding the offense, I see no reason why they can’t break into the top 10 overall.
Another reason to be optimistic is Sammy Watkins. The wide receiver was undoubtedly a unique threat for the Chiefs when he was able to stay on the field. With Watkins finally back from injury, the eye test alone showed a much more dynamic offense in the Colts divisional playoff game and the second half of the AFC championship. However, the sentiment is that Watkins can’t stay healthy and won’t ever play a full season. So, why is he a reason to be optimistic?
Because this is his first full offseason with the Chiefs’ training staff. Reportedly, Watkins has looked fantastic physically in OTAs and coaches expect him to make a big leap in his second season with the team. I wrote in a previous piece that it can take time for a training staff to figure out a player’s body and Watkins has unfortunately bounced from team to team throughout his career. Fortunately, it sounds like the Chiefs’ training staff may have rounded the learning curve and Watkins’ healthiest days are in front of him.
The next reason to be optimistic is still slightly unresolved, but it’s still worth mentioning. I won’t get into this too much, as no one can tell the future. However, it’s looking more and more like Tyreek Hill will likely be here for most of the season. I’m not sure I see him missing more than two to four games and I think the Chiefs can manage in the meantime.
Finally, there’s Mecole Hardman. Hardman is a speedster, and it sounds like the coaching staff is throwing everything they possibly can at him this offseason to prepare him for a major role in this offense early on. Consider this, as I’ve written before, there will come a point in the season where the opposing team’s third best cornerback will be covering a dynamic athlete with 4.33 speed. This is a scary proposition for opponents, and a fantastic one for the Chiefs. A lot of people questioned this pick, but honestly, the upside is tremendous.
The Chiefs’ offense has history, talent, and coaching on their side in their pursuit to maintain their historical greatness from a season ago. I, for one, believe they will.