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Will Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs regress this season?

By Lyle Graversen

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 20: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs gestures in the second half against the New England Patriots during the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 20, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 20: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs gestures in the second half against the New England Patriots during the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 20, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 15: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons passes against the Miami Dolphins at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 15, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 15: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons passes against the Miami Dolphins at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 15, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – 2016

I know some people will scoff at Matt Ryan being included on this list along side the likes of Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning. While I understand that Ryan’s overall resumé may not be on par with those other five quarerbacks, his 2016 season was definitely right up there with them from a statistical perspective. So before you dismiss Ryan’s inclusion here you have to keep in mind that Patrick Mahomes hasn’t done anything to put himself in the same league us those other five yet either. So its all the better to include Ryan in this study because as much as I want Mahomes to ascend to the level of those other five sure fire Hall of Fame quarterbacks that is not a sure thing at this point in his career.

Here’s what Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons did in 2016 and then the following season.

2016: 69.9% completions, 4,944 yards passing, 309.0 yards/game, 9.3 yards/attempt, 38 TDs, 7 INTs, 117.1 QB rating, 11-5 record, 2-1 playoff record (lost in Super Bowl)

2017: 64.7% completions, 4,095 yards passing, 255.9 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt, 20 TDs, 12 INTs, 91.4 QB rating, 10-6 record, 1-1 playoff record (lost in divisional round)

So once again we see a drop in statistics across the board and this time it is one of the biggest drops on the list. Ryan threw for over 800 less yards and had 18 fewer touchdowns the following season. We also see another example of the team dropping off a little as well. Again it is only one fewer regular season wins but the team was unable to advance past the divisional round after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season.

Finally, let’s put all these numbers together and look at what this could mean for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this coming season.

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