Predicting Patrick Mahomes’ encore to an MVP season

An Objective View

These subjective arguments are great, but what can we expect statistically from Mahomes in his second year starting? Last year, I predicted Mahomes’ first year stats by comparing the first years of Donovan Mcnabb and Alex Smith and then applying a multiplier for Mahomes’ talent and the Chiefs’ current personnel. You can find that piece here, for reference.

Obviously, I way undershot his production. I thought if he came close to duplicating Alex Smith’s 2017 campaign, Chiefs’ Kingdom would collectively be doing cartwheels. Incredibly, he surpassed everyone’s wildest expectations and had one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had.

Here’s the thing: Patrick Mahomes is on another level than Donovan McNabb or Alex Smith ever were, so these players aren’t a good comparison any longer. Considering Mahomes had one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had, it’s more relevant to compare him to the players whose seasons he’s competing against.

In this case I decided to compare Mahomes to a handful of the most recent spectacular quarterback seasons in the last 20 years. The players included are Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Drew Brees. The table is pictured below.

Here is a brief explanation of the table. These are five quarterbacks who, in the last 20 years, had arguably some of the best seasons ever. Each player’s best season is the first in line. Following this, in the table, is each player’s next full season. As you’ll notice, both Brady and Warner skip a year as each was injured for part or all of the year following their peak year.

From these two seasons, I calculated each players improvement or regression from their peak year to the following year for all statistical categories pictured. As you can see, in almost all categories these players regressed from their peak year. These results are highlighted in orange.

Finally, I took the average of each statistical categories’ improvement or regression for the five players and applied that multiplier to Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 statistics. These results are highlighted in yellow.

So, based on this small model, Mahomes will throw for 4,851 yards, with 39 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. He will complete 64% of his passes and have a passer rating of 100. In other words, this predicts he will regress in every major category, but still have a statistically great season.

Now, this prediction is derived from only five player’s seasonal transitions. In reality, the more members of a sample that you have the more reliable a prediction and vice versa. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many seasons in the last generation or two of quarterbacks comparable to Mahomes’ 2018 campaign. As such, five will have to do for now.

Given the small sample size, and the low statistical reliability, I’d look at this as the floor for Mahomes’ 2019 campaign. My gut tells me he won’t throw for 50 touchdowns two seasons in a row, as that would be a Herculean feat never before accomplished.

But, I do think he will likely come close to 5,000 yards, 45 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The main statistical improvement I think we’ll see is his completion percentage. These stats would likely put him in the conversation for a consecutive MVP award, and I think most Chiefs’ fans would be satisfied with this encore.

Conclusion

Mahomes absolutely electrified the NFL in 2018. He had one of the best seasons we’ve seen in a long time, and arguably one of the best of all time. He single-handedly brought Chiefs’ fans’ hopes and dreams of a Super Bowl back from the dead. In a word, it was incredible.

Luckily for Chiefs’ fans, he has a good chance to repeat those mythical heroics—or at least come close. Mahomes has the brains, the coaching, the team, and history on his side. Whether he tops 2018 or not, it’s unlikely that opposing defensive coordinators will have the savvy or the personnel to slow him down for long.